Friday, October 31, 2008

Big Game

Middletown 22, Fort Bragg 8

My First Upset Pick Came in....

Clear Lake 8, St. Vincent 7

Another Score

Cloverdale, 20, St. Helena 0

Second Game of the night...

St. Mary's 49, John Swett 0

First Game of the Night

Encinal 48, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 6

Mid-Game Part 2

Encinal 28, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 6 (3rd Qtr)

St. Mary's 42, John Swett 0 (half)

Mid-game updates

Encinal 14, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 6 (half)

St. Mary's 13, John Swett 0 (1st Qtr)

Games Tonight

Keep a close eye on this website tonight. I will update scores as I get them. If you come back from a game and you don't see your score posted yet, please post a comment to this post and I'll get it up ASAP.

Other Games this Weekend

St. Mary's (2-5) at John Swett (2-5) Friday night

It's been a long season for both teams. St. Mary's is a better team than their record would indicate and John Swett is a great 1st quarter team. I see a close game, perhaps a John Swett lead early, then the game will slip away from them. St. Mary's, if they win tonight, could finish a respectable 5-5.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 35-14.



Harker (3-3) at St. Elizabeth (4-3)

Harker's first year in the NCS Division IV has been up and down. They look to finish near the middle of the Bay League this year.
Prediction: St. Elizabeth wins 35-7.



South Fork (5-3) at Ferndale (7-0) Saturday afternoon

South Fork lost to Ferndale at home 33-0 earlier this year. Saturday looks a little different.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 49-0.



Lower Lake (0-7) at Kelseyville (3-3-1) Friday night

Kelseyville struggles to hold onto the last rung of the playoff ladder. I think they can hang on a little longer. This will be their first win over a Lower Lake team coached by their former coach.
Prediction: Kelseyville wins 42-7.



Upper Lake (3-4) at Willits (0-7) Friday night

Upper Lake is one of those teams that is so close to being a playoff team you want to root for them. That will be easy to do tonight. Willits can't wait for next week's game against Lower Lake.
Prediction: Upper Lake wins 34-12.



St. Helena (4-3) at Cloverdale (3-4) Friday night

This will be a close game. Cloverdale is undefeated at home (of course, those two wins were against 0-7 Lower Lake and 0-7 Willits). Each has played common opponents about the same. I think I'll go with the home team.
Prediction: Cloverdale wins 21-20.



Justin Siena is idle this weekend.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Big Games

Preview of this Week's Big Games -- the preview for other Division IV games will be posted later.


Middletown (6-1) at Fort Bragg (6-1) on Friday night

It looks like most people think the Middletown- Fort Bragg game is the biggest game in Division IV this weekend, and I agree. Although I do think that the loser of this game -- as long as they win out -- will still get into the Division IV playoffs. Both teams come into the game with balanced offenses and strong defenses. The weather Friday night might be a factor. If both passers are limited in what they can do, it's up to the offensive lines and running backs. Which team has the best "mudders"? I'm not sure. It should be a very close game, but probably low scoring.
Prediction: Middletown wins 7-6.

On a side note, one commenter has suggested that anyone attending the game should either film a portion of it and post it on Youtube, or take some photos and post them here. In either case, for those of us that cannot attend the game, let us know as soon as you can who won.



St. Patrick-St. Vincent (6-1) at Encinal (7-0) Friday night

Encinal has a balanced offensive attack and is likely to put a lot of points on the board. St. Pats is more of a running team and has fallen behind in each of the last four games they've played before coming back to win. Could this be the fifth?
Prediction: Encinal wins 35-21.



Berean Christian(5-2) at Salesian (4-2) Saturday afternoon

Berean Christian comes into the game with a corps of good running backs. Salesian's defense seems a little suspect to me. Hapless Emery made it a game last week, trailing 21-14 late in the second half before Salesian was able to pull away. Some say the favorite for this game is Salesian. I don't think so.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 28-14.



St. Vincent (7-0) at Clear Lake (4-2-1) Friday night

St. Vincent comes into the game with a talented quarterback, good running backs, and an undefeated record. But something has happened to them lately and I just don't know what that is. After beating Fort Bragg 12-7, they have fallen behind teams they should have easily beaten -- only to pull out a fourth quarter comeback. Even Upper Lake stayed with them for a half (7-6) before they were able to pull away. Clear Lake's quarterback has improved of late and they, too, have a capable corps of running backs. This game will be a lot closer than some think, especially if it's raining. The last rainy Friday night, St. Vincent eeked out a 14-2 win over hapless Willits. Clear Lake is no Willits. This is my upset pick of the week.
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 14-7.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Looking Ahead...

The Division IV landscape will probably look a little different next year. Dougherty Valley will move up to at least Division II (the school is just three years old) and there are several teams on different bubbles.

Teams that may join us:

McKinleyville, a Division III school in the HDLN Little Five, has 712 students currently enrolled. If they drop to 699, they qualify for Division IV. Last year they had 734 students.

Marin Catholic, a Division III school in the Marin County Athletic League (MCAL), has 714 students enrolled. They had just 706 last year. Marin Catholic has had fewer than 700 students in the past, but they always petitioned to play up. Who knows what they would do next year if their numbers dropped below 700.

St. Vincent, a Division V school in the NCL I South, has 399 students enrolled this year. They had the exact same number of students last year. If they hit 400 students, they will be a Division IV school.


Teams that may leave us:

St. Patrick-St Vincent has 682 students enrolled. They had 663 last year. If they gain another 18 students, they will become a Division III school.


Upper Lake has 419 students. They had 441 last year. If their numbers drop to 399, they will become a Division V school.


Personally, I think the NCS should expand the range for Division IV to 400-799 students. This would mean that Marin Catholic, McKinleyville, and Lower Lake would drop down to Division IV and we wouldn’t lose St. Patrick-St. Vincent. But that’s just my two cents. What do you think?

Division IV Rankings for this Week

1. Ferndale (7-0) – Beat Hoopa 50-6.
2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (6-1) – Beat Albany 26-12.
3. Middletown (6-1) – Defeated St. Helena 35-7.
4. Fort Bragg (6-1) – Crushed Lower Lake 62-6.
5. Dougherty Valley (5-2) – Idle, next up Mission San Jose.
6. Berean Christian (5-2) – Beat Harker 46-22.
7. Justin Siena (4-4) – Lost to Novato 30-0.
8. Clear Lake (4-2-1) – Beat Cloverdale 32-29.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

The Calm Before the Storm

This weekend's games went pretty much as I thought (aside from my lone upset pick). The Justin Siena-Novato score was indeed 30-0 in favor of Novato, not 13-0, which muddies their position a little. Justin Siena plays in a tough league where every other team is Division III or Division II and the seeding committee for the NCL playoffs always keeps that in mind. Justin Siena has been awarded a number two 0r three seed with three losses in the past.

Most of the teams in Division IV play non-league games against Division IV schools in other leagues or Division III, II, or I schools, and those games -- even if they lose -- carry weight with the seeding committee. The teams in the NCL North and South have a tougher time scheduling a variety of non-league games because in a ten game season, they only get one true non-league game. The NCL teams play the teams in their league (either the North or South), then they play all the teams in the other NCL I in what is called an "interlock" game.

Ferndale in the HDNL Little Five gets two non-league games, Bay Shore schools (St. Patrick-St. Vincent, St. Mary's, and John Swett) get three, Justin Siena gets three, and Bay Schools (Berean Christian, Salesian, and Harker) get five.

What does all this mean? I'm not sure. But I do think it's best if a team could play a minimum of two non-league games. Three would be perfect. Teams that have more non-league games challenge other Division IV schools and try to play up with Division III, II, or I schools. In a sense, most of us, including the seeding committee, gets a better idea where teams stand. Games between other Division IV schools can be great games. The St. Patrick-St. Vincent - Ferndale game (regular season) last year was one of the best high school football games I'd ever seen. St. Patrick-St. Vincent won that one 27-21, but Ferndale was in scoring position when the clock ran out. Ferndale finished their drive, in a sense, in the Class A title game against St. Patrick, winning 6-0.

On Tuesday, I'll post the rankings for this week and later in the week I'll post a preview of this week's games. It's appropriate that Friday night is Halloween because there are quite a few games that will make or break a season (and a couple of those on the following Saturday). I think this coming weekend is when we find out who the top six seeds are.

What do all of you think about the importance of non-league games? Let me know!

Sixth and Final Score

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 26, Albany 12



Those are the games from today...Most teams have three games left, so the season is shaping up. I'll post a comment about this weekend's games tomorrow and will post the top eight rankings Tuesday.

Fifth Score...

Salesian 56, Emery 20


Also, the Novato-Justin Siena score may be 30-0 instead of 13-0. We'll know more in the morning.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Fourth Score...

Berean Christian 46, Harker 22

Third score...

St. Vincent 28, Upper Lake 6

It was close for a half (7-6), but St. Vincent pulled away in the second half. So much for my upset pick.

Second Score

Ferndale 50, Hoopa 6

Thanks for posting!

First score for Saturday

Novato 13, Justin Siena 0

The Final Score from Friday night...

Kelseyville 47, Willits 0



There are a lot of games today. I'll post scores as soon as I get them. Anyone out there who comes back from a game, post the score here as a comment to this post.

Friday, October 24, 2008

One more score...

The only score I don't have yet is Willits at Kelseyville.

The St. Patrick-St. Vincent vs. Albany takes place tomorrow, not tonight.

Yet another...

Clear Lake 32, Cloverdale 29

Another Final Score

Fort Bragg 62, Lower Lake 6

Scores tonight...

If anyone knows of any other scores tonight...Post them as a comment to this post.

Third Score

John Swett 47, Moreau Catholic 22

Second Final Score

Encinal 41, St. Mary's 14

First Final Score

Middletown 35, St. Helena 7

Game Updates

Middletown 21, St. Helena 0 (halftime)

John Swett 7, Moreau Catholic 6 (first quarter)

Big Games

There are four games that could have playoff repercussions:

Justin Siena at Novato Friday night

Cloverdale at Clear Lake Friday night

Harker at Berean Christian Saturday afternoon

Upper Lake at St. Vincent Saturday afternoon



Keep a close eye on the outcome of these games. All games this weekend are important, but these games might just reshape the playoff field as it stands now.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Weekend Preview: NCL I North & South

NCL I

Willits (0-6) at Kelseyville (2-3-1) Friday night

Kelseyville looks to even their record and Willits is still searching for their first win.
Prediction: Kelseyville wins 21-7.


Fort Bragg (5-1) at Lower Lake (0-6) Friday night

Fort Bragg should win easily, but shouldn't get caught looking ahead to the Middletown game next week.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 42-14.


Middletown (5-1) at St. Helena (4-2) Friday night

This game might actually be close for the first quarter and a half, but Middletown should pull away after that.
Prediction: Middletown wins 35-14.


Cloverdale (3-3) at Clear Lake (3-2-1) Friday night

This appears like it will be a great game. Each team has fared similarly with common opponents and each comes into the game still alive for a shot at the playoffs.
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 28-26.


Upper Lake (3-3) at St. Vincent (6-0) Saturday afternoon

St. Vincent has not played consistently since their 12-7 win over Fort Bragg in week 3. Since squeaking by Middletown and Fort Bragg, St. Vincent played 0-6 Willits close (winning 14-2) and had to come from behind to beat Cloverdale 20-14. I think Upper Lake might give them a game. I know I always get into trouble with this, but here is my upset pick of the weekend (I have to have one).
Prediction: Upper Lake wins 22-20.

Weekend Preview: MCAL; HDNL Little Five; Freelance

Marin County Athletic League


Justin Siena (4-3) at Novato (5-2) Saturday afternoon

This will be a tough game for Justin Siena. Of their three remaining games, they have to win two in order to have a good shot at the playoffs. They will likely beat Terra Linda (0-7) next week. That leaves a tough as nails Novato this weekend, or Tamalpais (5-1) the final weekend.
Prediction: Novato wins 28-21.



HDNL Little 5

Hoopa (1-6) at Ferndale (6-0) Saturday afternoon

Unless half of the Ferndale Wildcats are benched with illness or injury, this game won't be close.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 49-0.



Freelance

Dougherty Valley (5-2) idle

Weekend Preview: Bay League and Bay Shore

Bay League

Harker (3-2) at Berean Christian (4-2) Saturday afternoon

This is a make or break game for Harker. If they still hold any hopes for making the playoffs, they have to upset Berean Christian on the road. I think that's to tall an order.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 35-14.


Emory (0-7) at Salesian (3-2) Saturday night

This should be an easy win for Salesian.

Prediction: Salesian wins 56-0.



Bay Shore League

St. Patrick-St. Vincent (5-1) at Albany (2-4) Friday night

The Bruins of St. Patrick-St. Vincent should continue to roll through the Bay Shore League until their Halloween night game against undefeated Encinal.
Prediction: St. Patrick-St. Vincent wins 42-14.


St. Mary's (2-4) at Encinal (6-0) Friday night

St. Mary's is having a tough year and it will only get worse after kickoff Friday night.
Prediction: Encinal wins 49-14.


Moreau Catholic (0-6) at John Swett (1-5) Friday night

John Swett has played well in each game thus far. Unfortunately they only play well for about one quarter. Can they put it together for a whole game?
Prediction: John Swett wins 35-21.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Division IV Rankings for this Week

  1. Ferndale (6-0) – Idle, next up is Hoopa.
  2. St. Patrick- St. Vincent (5-1) – Beat Kennedy 28-7.
  3. Middletown (5-1) – Dominated Willits 56-0.
  4. Fort Bragg (5-1) – Crushed Kelseyville 62-19.
  5. Justin Siena (4-3) – Beat San Rafael 42-3.
  6. Dougherty Valley (5-2) – Lost to Burton 20-9.
  7. Berean Christian (4-2) – Beat St. Elizabeth 7-0.
  8. St. Helena (4-2) – Beat Upper Lake 27-12.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Weekend Wrap Up...

It was a tale of two days this weekend. Most of the Friday night games were blowouts and of the three Saturday games, two were very close. The only real surprise of note is Dougherty Valley losing to Burton. I'm not so sure they can win out.

St. Patrick-St. Vincent has steadily improved since their opening game loss to Marin Catholic and have thus far secured their place as the second ranked team. They do have two tough games left, Encinal (who is undefeated) and Piedmont.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Last Saturday Score...

St. Helena 27, Upper Lake 12


Thanks for posting!

Upper Lake

The only score we're waiting on is the Upper Lake - St. Helena score...If anyone out there knows that score, post it as a comment to this post.

Another Saturday Score...

Berean Christian 7, St. Elizabeth 0

First Saturday Score...

St. Vincent 20, Cloverdale 14

Saturday Scores

If anyone has just returned from a game involving any of our Division IV teams, post the score as a comment to this post. Saturday scores usually come in much later than Friday night scores, but I'll get them up as soon as I get them.

Friday, October 17, 2008

And our final Blowout of the night...

Harker 55, Emery 6

The night of Blowouts...

Fort Bragg 62, Kelseyville 19

Yet Another Blow Out

Justin Siena 42, San Rafael 3

Another Blow Out...

Clear Lake 47, Lower Lake 0


And I agree...I have to get my sniffer adjusted...

Blow Out....

Middletown 56, Willits 0

Scores

If you have just returned from a game, post the score as a comment to this post and I'll post it on the board.

Two More Scores...

Encinal 70, John Swett 14

St. Mary's 52, Moreau 14

Score 2...

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 28, Kennedy 7

First Score

First surprise of the night...

Burton 20, Dougherty Valley 9

Halftime Scores

Burton 6, Dougherty Valley 3 (half)

Encinal 28, John Swett 14 (half)

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 21, Kennedy 7 (half)

St. Mary's 30, Moreau 0 (half)

Current Scores...

Upset alert!

John Swett leads undefeated Encinal 14-7 in the 1st Quarter.




Dougherty Valley 3, Burton 0 (1st)

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 8, Kennedy 7 (1st)

Games to watch...

There are three games that we need to keep a close eye on:

St. Elizabeth at Berean Christian on Friday night. These two teams appear to be the top two in the Bay League with Salesian (who is idle this week) and Harker just a notch below.


Kelseyville at Fort Bragg

Kelseyville is still an enigma. They resemble Jekyll and Hide -- sometimes within the same game and sometimes week to week. Which team will show up Friday night? I have no idea.


St. Helena at Upper Lake

This Saturday afternoon game is intriguing because Upper Lake seems to be competitive with teams in the second tier in the NCL (upset Kelseyville two weeks ago). St. Helena dwells within that second tier. This could be the best game to see this weekend.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Preview of Upcoming Games

Bay League


Harker (2-2) Vs. Emeryville (0-6)

Emeryville is having a tough first year back at the varsity level.
Prediction: Harker wins 50-0.



St. Elizabeth (3-2) at Berean Christian (3-2) {Saturday Game}

This is an interesting match-up. St. Elizabeth is a Division V school, but is probably better than most Division IV schools (much like St. Vincent in the NCL I South). Berean Christian is a good team and they are playing at home.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 21-20.




Bay Shore League


John Swett (1-4) at Encinal (5-0)

Encinal is the favorite to win the Bay Shore League. It looks to be a long night for John Swett.
Prediction: Encinal wins 49-6.



St. Patrick-St. Vincent (4-1) at Kennedy (4-1)

This is another interesting match-up for this weekend. Both teams come into the game with 4-1 records and each lost to a Marin County team the first weekend of the season. It is really a toss up and I think the game won't be decided until late.
Prediction: Kennedy wins 28-24.



St. Mary's (1-4) at Moreau Catholic (0-5)

I think this is St. Mary's game to lose.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 21-7.



HDNL Little 5

Ferndale (6-0) is idle.



Marin County Athletic League


Justin Siena (3-3) at San Rafael (0-5)

This will be one of two games Justin Siena should win. If Justin Siena loses this game, their prospects for a spot in the playoffs drops significantly.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 33-20.



NCL I North


Lower Lake (0-5) at Clear Lake (2-2-1)

Lower Lake has struggled the first five games of the season, but they did hold their own for a while against a good St. Vincent team last week. Clear Lake is the odds on favorite, but I smell an upset.
Prediction: Lower Lake wins 20-17.


Kelseyville (2-2-1) at Fort Bragg (4-1)

Fort Bragg is one of the best teams in the NCL I North and Kelseyville comes in at the middle of the pack. How good is Kelseyville? Not good enough to beat Fort Bragg on the road.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 28-6.


Willits (0-5) at Middletown (4-1)

Middletown is the other best team in the NCL I North. Willits comes in with an 0-5 record and unfortunately lands in Middletown for their homecoming. Tough luck.
Middletown wins 42-0.



NCL I South


Cloverdale (3-2) at St. Vincent (5-0) {Saturday Game}

St. Vincent looks to run the table in the NCL I South and grab the number one seed in the Division V playoffs. Cloverdale is fighting for second place with all the other teams in the league and a possible Division IV at-large birth.
Prediction: St. Vincent wins 34-14.


St. Helena (3-2) at Upper Lake (3-2) {Saturday Game}

This is another interesting match-up. I'm really not sure how good or how bad either teams is. I only know things start to make more sense if Upper Lake wins.
Prediction: Upper Lake wins 28-21.




Freelance


Burton (1-4) at Dougherty Valley (5-1)

I think Dougherty Valley will win out and earn an at-large birth in this year's playoffs.
Prediction: Dougherty Valley wins 35-21.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Rankings

The top three times won easily, so there was no movement there. Justin Siena lost for the second week in a row and had to be dropped. I still think they are a top level team, but they did lose to one team they shouldn't have (San Marin) in this stretch. Their next game is against winless San Rafael, so they should get back to a winning record. In the next four weeks, they have two easy games (Terra Linda is also winless) and two difficult games (Novato and Tamalpais). Although I think they will still make the playoffs at 5-5, I believe they will have to upset one of those teams just to be sure.

Dropping Justin Siena meant some teams rose. Dougherty Valley, Fort Bragg, and Berean Christian all jumped one or two notches in the rankings. Salesian crept into the rankings after their dominant win over McClymonds and a record of 3-2. There are several teams with 3-2 records (Cloverdale, St. Helena, and Upper Lake), and each were considered for ranking -- as were Kelseyville and Clear Lake, both with 2-2-1 records. But Salesian seems to be improving as the season progresses. They are idle this week and if there is movement from any of the teams just below them, they can be dropped out of the rankings. St. Helena and Upper Lake face off and the winner of that game could very well be ranked next week.

Division IV Rankings

Here are the rankings for this week:


  1. Ferndale (6-0) – Crushed McKinleyville 33-6.
  2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (4-1) – Beat St. Mary’s 42-14.
  3. Middletown (4-1) – Defeated Upper Lake 35-0.
  4. Dougherty Valley (5-1) – Beat Harker 30-16.
  5. Fort Bragg (4-1) – Beat Clear Lake 28-6.
  6. Berean Christian (3-2) – Idle, up next is St. Elizabeth.
  7. Justin Siena (3-3) – Lost to Marin Catholic 14-10.
  8. Salesian (3-2) – Dominated Division III McClymonds 28-0.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Upper Lake Middletown

Middletown 35, Upper Lake 0

Last score from Friday night...

Marin Catholic 14, Justin Siena 10

Tonight

I have all the scores except the Justin Siena - Marin Catholic game. I'll probably get that one in the morning.

Another score 2

St. Helena 27, Willits 7

Friday, October 10, 2008

Another Score

Kelseyville 22, Cloverdale 16

Score 4

Ferndale 33, McKinlyeville 6

Thanks for posting!

Score 3

Fort Bragg 28, Clear Lake 6

Score 3

Kennedy 58, John Swett 18

Scores 2

St Patrick-St. Vincent 42, St. Marys 14

Scores

A couple of scores to report:

Dougherty Valley 30, Harker 16

Salesian 28, McClymonds 0

This Weekend's Games

Check here frequently throughout the night. As I get a score, I post it. If you attend a game, please post the score by adding a comment to this post and I'll post it on the blog itself.

Preview of NCL Games

NCL I North and South

Clear Lake (2-1-1) at Fort Bragg (3-1) Friday night

Fort Bragg will compete with Middletown for the NCL I North crown. Clear Lake may struggle with Cloverdale and Upper Lake for second place in the NCL I South.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 35-7.



Cloverdale (3-1) at Kelseyville (1-2-1) Friday night

Kelseyville had an early 18-0 lead against Upper Lake only to lose 30-18. Kelseyville continues to play inconsistently. Cloverdale was having a good season until they ran into Middletown. So far, no one in the NCL I South seems to be able to compete with Division V St. Vincent.
Prediction: Cloverdale wins 27-14.



St. Helena (2-2) at Willits (0-4) Friday night

This is a down year for Willits. But they did play St. Vincent pretty tough last week, although that may be partly attributed to the weather. It is tough to win at Willits, no matter how down they are. I'm thinking this one is a ball game.
Prediction: Willits wins 14-13.



Middletown (3-1) at Upper Lake (3-1) Saturday afternoon

Upper Lake surprised everyone with a powerful win over Kelseyville. I'm still not sure how good Kelseyville is, so that means I have no idea how good Upper Lake is. However, I do know how good Middletown is.
Prediction: Middletown wins 35-6.



The Lower Lake at St. Vincent game pits a Division III school against a Division V school, so that game isn't relevant here. But I do predict a blowout by St. Vincent -- somewhere in the 49-0 range.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Preview of Games

Below are previews for some of the games this weekend. I'll post the preview to the NCL games later tonight.

*Note*

All of the games previewed below are played Friday night.


Bay League:

Harker (2-1) at Dougherty Valley (4-1)

This is a tough one. Until now, Harker hasn't played anyone in the NCS yet, and Dougherty Valley is a new school. Last year, Harker crushed Dougherty Valley, but that was a team made up of mostly sophomores. Dougherty Valley is in control of their own destiny -- even though they must apply for an at-large birth in the playoffs. They beat Harker, and they'll likely finish 9-1.
Prediction: Doughtery Valley wins 28-21.



Salesian (2-2) at McClymonds (2-2)

Salesian must turn their season around to have a shot at the playoffs. Right now, Berean Christian and Harker seem ready to fight for the Bay League title.
Prediction: McClymonds wins 24-20.


Berean Christina is off this week.



Bay Shore

John Swett (1-3) at Kennedy (3-1)

John Swett is likely out of the playoffs. A loss here closes the door for sure.
Prediction: Kennedy wins 35-14.



St. Marys (1-3) at St. Patrick-St. Vincent(3-1)

St. Patrick-St. Vincent is on a roll, winning three games in a row after losing their opener to Marin Catholic. St. Marys has one win, and that was because of a week one forfeit.
Prediction: St. Patrick-St. Vincent wins 42-7.



HDL Little 5

Ferndale (5-0) at McKinleyville (4-1)

This is the game of the week. McKinleyville is playing good football and will pose a challenge to Ferndale. But Ferndale is the team of the year so far and I don't see McKinleyville quite making it. But they are at home, so that might make it a little closer.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 28-14.



Marin County League

Marin Catholic (3-1) at Justin Siena (3-2)

Marin Catholic is a tough team. They opened the season with a win over St. Patrick-St. Vincent (28-7) and their only loss was to a much larger St. Ignatius. Justin Siena has three tough opponents left and must upset one in order to secure a playoff spot. Can they upset Marin Catholic? I don't think so.
Prediction: Marin Catholic wins 21-14.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Rankings

I think most everyone would agree that Ferndale and St. Patrick-St. Vincent are the top two teams. Three through six requires a little explanation. Justin Siena, last week's number two team and Dougherty Valley, last week's number four team, both lost to winless teams. While their opponents were bigger schools, I couldn't justify leaving them in place. So they each dropped and then I was faced with who to bring up. Middletown, Fort Bragg, and Berean Christian all won their respective games and of the three, I gave Middletown the slight edge.

Justin Siena may lose three more games this year, which would give them a record of 5-5. I think to solidify their spot in the NCS Division IV playoffs, they will have to upset either Marin Catholic, Novato, or Tamalpais.

After the Harker game this weekend, Dougherty Valley plays mostly large schools and I don't see them losing any of them. Most of the schools have played and lost to other Division IV or Division V schools by large margins. If Dougherty Valley beats Harker, they will likely finish with a 9-1 record.

Berean Christian entered the top eight for the second time this year. I think they are the favorite to win the Bay League. But there is a dark horse in the Bay League this year, Harker, a new team in the league. We'll know just how good Harker is when they play Dougherty Valley this weekend. Last year, Sacred Heart and Kings Academy were in the Bay League. They moved on to other leagues and another section, and both are doing well (both 4-0). Were they in the Bay League this year, they would be ranked right behind Ferndale.

Cloverdale hung on to the eighth spot for the second week in a row. The two teams that are right behind them are Upper Lake and Harker. I just don't know how good Harker is and I'm beginning to see Upper Lake in a different light. Both of those teams have tough games this weekend against ranked teams. Upper Lake hosts number 3 Middletown and Harker visits number 5 Dougherty Valley.

I'll post my preview and predictions of this weekend's games later today and tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Class A Dude's Rankings

  1. Ferndale (5-0) – Faces tough McKinleyville Friday night.
  2. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (3-1) – Defeated John Swett 42-7.
  3. Middletown (3-1) – Dominated Clear Lake 34-0.
  4. Justin Siena (3-2) – Lost to San Marin 12-7.
  5. Dougherty Valley (4-1) – Lost to Division III Dublin 32-21.
  6. Fort Bragg (3-1) – Beat St . Helena 35-7.
  7. Berean Christian (3-2) – Defeated Division II Northgate 26-21.
  8. Cloverdale (3-1) – Beat Lower Lake 30-0.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Weekend Review....

There were a few surprises this weekend. I didn't expect Justin Siena to lose to winless San Marin (12-7), but San Marin had lost to larger schools. The game itself was very close with Justin Siena on the San Marin one yard line with time for one play. They attempted to pass, but the ball was batted down.

I thought Dougherty Valley would beat Division III Dublin, but they lost 32-21. Dougherty Valley is made up of mostly Sophomores and Juniors, but Dublin had yet to win a game

I was really surprised by Upper Lake's defeat of Kelseyville (30-18). They are definitely a team I have considered for the rankings, but they also lost badly to Fort Bragg (42-7) and played Lower Lake a little tighter (28-14) than Cloverdale did (30-0).

I was slightly surprised that the Middletown - Clear Lake game wasn't closer (34-0). and I was slightly surprised that the St. Vincent - Willits game wasn't more of a blowout for St. Vincent (14-2).

Ferndale continues its dominance up north and St. Patrick - St. Vincent continues to win after dropping their first game. Fort Bragg handled St. Helena (35-7) and a blackout. In fact, the blackout occurred right after St. Helena scored its touchdown. The extra point attempt didn't occur until some twenty minutes later -- which may be why some sports outlets have the score as 35-6. But the Napa Valley Register, who covered the game, insists the extra point was made.

Berean Christian beat a Division II school, Northgate 26-21. They are definitely the team to beat in the Bay League. Salesian dropped its second game of the season to Castlemont of Oakland 34-15 and Harker was idle. Harker may contend with Berean Christian for the title. We'll know how good they are next week after their game with Dougherty Valley.

I'll post the rankings Tuesday and will preview the upcoming Division games later in the week.

Upper Lake Score

Upper Lake 30 Kelseyville 18

One more score from Saturday

Castlemont 34 Salesian 15


One more score I'm waiting on is Upper Lake v. Kelseyville. I heard through the grapevine that Upper Lake won and won big, but I can't find the score.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Saturday Score

Ferndale 35 Fortuna 6

Other scores from Friday night...

Fort Bragg 35 St. Helena 7

St. Vincents 14 Willits 2



Winless San Marin upset Justin Siena 12-7. This game had a bizarre finish. With seconds left from near their own endzone San Marin was forced to punt. Their coach instructed the punter to run around in the endzone to run out the clock and take the safety. Instead, he was tackled on the one yard line. Justin Siena had time to run one play. The quarterback's pass was batted back into his face by a San Marin defensive lineman.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Scores

One more...

Piedmont 35 St. Mary's 14

New Scores

Here's what we have so far (thanks to those posting scores):

Dublin 32 Dougherty Valley 21

Cloverdale 30 Lower Lake 0

Berean Christian 26 Northgate 21

St. Pat-St. Vin 42 John Swett 7

Middletown

Middletown 34 Clear Lake 0.

I expected a closer game, but Middletown dominated both sides of the line, never punted, and Clear Lake didn't get within the Middletown 30 yard line.

Tonight's Games

I will be at the Clear Lake - Middletown game tonight and will post that score as soon as I get home. I will also post other scores from around Division IV as soon as I get them. If any of you attend a game tonight, post your scores by adding a comment to one of my posts.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

NCL I North and South Preview

It's the Civil War all over again as the teams in the NCL I North face off against the NCL I South. Here are the games:

Lower Lake (0-3) at Cloverdale (2-1) Friday night.

Though a Division III school, Lower Lake is down from last year and will likely struggle against Cloverdale on the road. Cloverdale will try to rebound from last week's 35-14 loss at Middletown.
My prediction: Cloverdale wins 35-7.



Clear Lake (2-0-1) at Middletown (2-1) Friday night.

Although some think Middletown will win easily, I think this game will be close -- at least for the first half. Clear Lake beat Willits by nearly the same score that Cloverdale did the week before, but I don't think that translates to a similar outcome in this game. I expect the score to be tied or within a touchdown at the half, with Middletown pulling away in the second half, but not by much.
My prediction: Middletown wins 28-17.




Fort Bragg (2-1) at St. Helena (2-1) Friday night.

This game will be a great barometer for the NCL leagues because neither team has faced a common opponent this season. I do believe that Fort Bragg is the tougher team, having played a close game against a good St. Vincent team that is better, in my opinion, than anyone St. Helena has played. I think it will be a wild one with lots of points scored, but most of those by Fort Bragg.
My prediction: Fort Bragg wins 48-28.



St. Vincent (3-0) at Willits (0-3) Friday night.

Division V St. Vincent is a good team having squeaked by the top two NCL I North teams in back to back weekends at home. Usually Willits is a difficult place to escape with a win, but Willits is down this year. A surprise outcome would be if the rain hinders the St. Vincent passing game and the score ends up closer than blowout proportions.
My prediction: St. Vincent wins 35-0.



Kelseyville (1-1-1) at Upper Lake (2-1) Saturday afternoon.

Kelseyville, who opened the season with a blowout loss to Berean Christian, rebounded the next two games. Clear Lake was expected to win handily against Kelseyville, but the game ended in a 7-7 tie. Then Kelseyville followed that with a 37-21 win over previously undefeated St. Helena. Upper Lake surprised everyone when they beat Lower Lake 28-14 on the road last week. How good are these teams? Except for the fans of both, I don't think anyone knows for sure.
My prediction: Kelseyville wins 28-21.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Predictions

Don't agree with my predictions below? Then post who you think will win by what score in the comments section.

Preview of Games this Weekend

Bay League:

Salesian (2-1) visits Division II Castlemont (1-1-1) Friday night.

This looks to be a tough game for Salesian. Castlemont is a larger school who is competitive with the top Division II teams (tying undefeated Concord). Their only loss came against a Division I team, Berkley (2-1). Salesian is the only Division IV team on their schedule this year.
My prediction: Castlemont wins 35-14.


Berean Christian (2-2) visits Northgate (1-3) Friday night.

Northgate is a Division II school in Walnut Creek. This game will be close. Though Northgate is a larger school, this is a down year for them and Berean Christian is much better than their 2-2 record would indicate. If Berean Christian can pull off the upset, they may slide back into the top eight rankings.
My Prediction: Berean Christian wins 20-14.


Harker (2-1) is off this weekend.



Bay Shore League:

St. Marys (1-2) visits Piedmont (1-2) Friday night.

Both schools play in the Bay Shore league, but Piedmont is a Division III school. St. Marys is a tough team, having lost by close margins to both Salesian and Acalanes by a score of 14-9. Piedmont runs the crazy A-11 offense where every man on offense can be a potential ball carrier. Gimmicks aside, I give the edge to St. Marys.
My prediction: St. Marys wins 14-7.


John Swett (1-2) hosts St. Patrick-St. Vincent (2-1) Friday night.

Both teams are tough, but St. Patrick-St. Vincent -- though down from last year -- looks to be a bit tougher. If John Swett does lose at home, their playoff hopes are likely dashed.
My prediction: St. Pat/St. Vin wins 28-20.



Marin County League:

Justin Siena (3-1) hosts San Marin (0-3) Friday night.

Justin Siena can't afford to be caught looking ahead to next week's game against Marin Catholic. San Marin has not been competitive in any of the games they've played this year and Friday night's game should be no different.
My prediction: Justin Siena wins 38-7.



Humboldt Del Norte Little Five:

Ferndale (4-0) hosts Fortuna (3-0) Saturday afternoon.

In a battle of the unbeatens, Ferndale (really a Division V school) looks to have the slight edge against the Division III school. Last year's game in Fortuna was a tight one, with Ferndale escaping with a 15-7 win. Fortuna has improved from last year, but winning at Ferndale is next to impossible.
My prediction: Ferndale wins 7-0.



Freelance:

Dougherty Valley (4-0) visits Dublin (0-3) Friday night.

In only their second year at the varsity level, Dougherty Valley is making an impact in Division IV. They beat a good Berean Christian team 30-27 and defeated John Swett 20-13. But Dublin is a bigger school (Division III) and they are looking forward to their first win of the season. Most of Dougherty Valley's players are on the small side, but they do have speed. This will be a tight game.
My prediction: Dougherty Valley wins 28-21.


Thursday: NCL I North and NCL I South