The title game will be at Alhambra High School next Friday night at 7:00 pm.
Justin Siena (8-4) vs. Salesian (9-2)
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Final Score
Justin Siena 22, Ferndale 15
Wow, that one surprises me. Ferndale uncharacteristically had several penalties. It was a good, close-fought game. Justin put it away late in the 4th.
Wow, that one surprises me. Ferndale uncharacteristically had several penalties. It was a good, close-fought game. Justin put it away late in the 4th.
Last Night's Game
Looking back, it was even better than I had written. I was glad I was there. I know there has been some discussion about private school teams versus public school teams. It's well known that De La Salle recruits players, but they also get a lot of people to move there so their sons will play on a high profile team, inceasing their chances of getting a full ride scholarship. But they are a big school and play under much brighter lights. In Division IV, the schools are too small to really do much of what De La Salle does. Kids go to Justin Siena or Salesian or St. Patrick-St. Vincent because they live in the area and their parents pay for them to go to those schools.
The biggest reason most of those schools in Division IV are so tough is who they regularly play. Justin and St. Pats play in a league that has Division II and III schools, plus they have tough non-league games. It's no coincidence that one of the most successful public school programs, Ferndale, plays bigger schools and other tough small schools outside of their own league. To me, that's the secret. You build your program by facing tough opponents each year, opponents that are supposed to beat you.
Yes, Salesian beat Middletown last night. But it was a great game and both teams deserved to be there.
The biggest reason most of those schools in Division IV are so tough is who they regularly play. Justin and St. Pats play in a league that has Division II and III schools, plus they have tough non-league games. It's no coincidence that one of the most successful public school programs, Ferndale, plays bigger schools and other tough small schools outside of their own league. To me, that's the secret. You build your program by facing tough opponents each year, opponents that are supposed to beat you.
Yes, Salesian beat Middletown last night. But it was a great game and both teams deserved to be there.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Final Score
Salesian 22, Middeltown 21
The game was an excellent one. It was tied 7-7 at the half, and Middletown was ahead 21-13 entering the 4th quarter. But Salesian scored with about 9 minutes left and Middletown turned the ball over on downs their next possession. Salesian then marched down to the 13 yard line with about 3 minutes left. A holding penalty put them back to the 23. They didn't gain much and and 4th down they kicked a field goal to take the lead. Middletown turned the ball over on downs.
Point of full disclosure, I was rooting for Middletown ('83 alumni), but it was a great game to watch. Salesian has a terrific running back and their quarterbck has a strong arm. But it was their line, offense and defense, that carried the day. Their line dominated Middletown's.
Tomorrow's big game is Justin Siena at Ferndale, then we'll know who is matched up in the championship game.
The game was an excellent one. It was tied 7-7 at the half, and Middletown was ahead 21-13 entering the 4th quarter. But Salesian scored with about 9 minutes left and Middletown turned the ball over on downs their next possession. Salesian then marched down to the 13 yard line with about 3 minutes left. A holding penalty put them back to the 23. They didn't gain much and and 4th down they kicked a field goal to take the lead. Middletown turned the ball over on downs.
Point of full disclosure, I was rooting for Middletown ('83 alumni), but it was a great game to watch. Salesian has a terrific running back and their quarterbck has a strong arm. But it was their line, offense and defense, that carried the day. Their line dominated Middletown's.
Tomorrow's big game is Justin Siena at Ferndale, then we'll know who is matched up in the championship game.
Friday night
I will be at the Middletown-Salesian game tonight. I'll post the score as soon as I get back.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Semi-Finals
The big weekend is fast approaching. I can't wait. I'll be at the Middletown-Salesian game and will follow the Justin Siena-Ferndale game via online radio.
Salesian (8-2) at Middletown (10-1) Friday night
This is a rematch of a game early in the season that Middletown won 49-20. I don't think we'll see a 29 point spread Friday night. Salesian has improved greatly and their running game has been churning out the yards the past few weeks. Middletown's defense will be put to the test, but I think they have enough to slow the charge from the Chieftains. I still think the game will be close.
Prediction: Middletown wins 24-21.
Justin Siena (7-4) at Ferndale (11-0) Saturday afternoon
This, too, looks like it will be a great game. I think this one could be every bit as good as the regular season match-up between Ferndale and St. Patrick-St. Vincent last year, but with a different outcome. Justin, just like St. Pats, runs the veer offense and has a mobile quarterback. Ferndale has seen this before. I think Ferndale will control the tempo of the game, holding a tight lead late in the game, forcing Justin to take chances. If those chances succeed, then they might squeak out a win, but if they fail, the score might end up more lopsided.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 35-21.
Salesian (8-2) at Middletown (10-1) Friday night
This is a rematch of a game early in the season that Middletown won 49-20. I don't think we'll see a 29 point spread Friday night. Salesian has improved greatly and their running game has been churning out the yards the past few weeks. Middletown's defense will be put to the test, but I think they have enough to slow the charge from the Chieftains. I still think the game will be close.
Prediction: Middletown wins 24-21.
Justin Siena (7-4) at Ferndale (11-0) Saturday afternoon
This, too, looks like it will be a great game. I think this one could be every bit as good as the regular season match-up between Ferndale and St. Patrick-St. Vincent last year, but with a different outcome. Justin, just like St. Pats, runs the veer offense and has a mobile quarterback. Ferndale has seen this before. I think Ferndale will control the tempo of the game, holding a tight lead late in the game, forcing Justin to take chances. If those chances succeed, then they might squeak out a win, but if they fail, the score might end up more lopsided.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 35-21.
Cal-Hi State Rankings
These are courtesy of one of our followers here:
Small School Division
North:
1. Ferndale 11-0
2. Hamilton 9-2
3. Modoc 11-0
4. St. Vincent 9-1
5. Portola 10-1
South:
1. St. Margarets 11-0
2. Parker 9-1
3. Aquinas 10-1
4. Central Valley Christian 8-2
5. Christian 9-1
Small School Division
North:
1. Ferndale 11-0
2. Hamilton 9-2
3. Modoc 11-0
4. St. Vincent 9-1
5. Portola 10-1
South:
1. St. Margarets 11-0
2. Parker 9-1
3. Aquinas 10-1
4. Central Valley Christian 8-2
5. Christian 9-1
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
State Championships
I've been looking at how the CIF breaks down the state championships and it seems a tad unfair. Everything appears to favor the Southern teams. First, the breakdown of all the divisions:
Division I: North is 1701 students + South is 2400+
Division II: North is 1001-1700 South is 1101-2399
Division III: North is 401-1000 South is 501-1110
Small: North is 400 or less South is 500 or less
Why is there a discrepancy? Shouldn't enrollment figures for each division be equal for north and south?
And the biggie: All the championship games are played down south. I know it has to do with the sponsor, but I think they can find a way to play up north every other year, or make all the games in the middle of the state.
Right now, Ferndale is the leading small school for the north according to Calpreps.com. Their current southern opponent would be Parker if the game would be played today. Parker, by the way, has an enrollment of 496 students, which would make them a Division III school were they playing up north.
Division I: North is 1701 students + South is 2400+
Division II: North is 1001-1700 South is 1101-2399
Division III: North is 401-1000 South is 501-1110
Small: North is 400 or less South is 500 or less
Why is there a discrepancy? Shouldn't enrollment figures for each division be equal for north and south?
And the biggie: All the championship games are played down south. I know it has to do with the sponsor, but I think they can find a way to play up north every other year, or make all the games in the middle of the state.
Right now, Ferndale is the leading small school for the north according to Calpreps.com. Their current southern opponent would be Parker if the game would be played today. Parker, by the way, has an enrollment of 496 students, which would make them a Division III school were they playing up north.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Big Games
We have only three games left, and possibly a fourth, in the NCS Division IV. There would be a fourth game if Ferndale wins the section championship and they are the top ranked small school in the north. This year, the faux state championship has included a small school division (for schools with 400 or less students). Ferndale is currently the number one small school in the north and if they win, beating larger, ranked schools, they will only cement their number one ranking.
By the way, I call it a faux state championship because it's really a close cousin to the BCS in college. Teams from the north and south are "picked" to play the championship game. How this process really works, I don't know. But I do know that, when compared to other state championships, California lags far behind. Texas, which is a big state, has a statewide championship for each division. I think they serve as the model for what we should aspire to do here.
But, in the meantime, this is what we have. Ferndale is the one school in our Division even being considered for the honor of playing in a state championship -- so if they do make it, I'm sure everyone will root them on.
In our section, this will all be settled on the football field. I will preview both games on Turkey Day. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving!
By the way, I call it a faux state championship because it's really a close cousin to the BCS in college. Teams from the north and south are "picked" to play the championship game. How this process really works, I don't know. But I do know that, when compared to other state championships, California lags far behind. Texas, which is a big state, has a statewide championship for each division. I think they serve as the model for what we should aspire to do here.
But, in the meantime, this is what we have. Ferndale is the one school in our Division even being considered for the honor of playing in a state championship -- so if they do make it, I'm sure everyone will root them on.
In our section, this will all be settled on the football field. I will preview both games on Turkey Day. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving!
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Final Four
Well, our Final Four is set. (1) Ferndale hosts (4) Justin Siena next Saturday; and (2) Middletown hosts (3) Salesian Friday night.
I will be at the Salesian-Middletown game, and the Justin Siena-Ferndale game will be streamed over the internet at KVYN.com and KWPT.com. You have your choice of radio stations. Both are very easy to listen to and have great play-by-play and color people.
I will be at the Salesian-Middletown game, and the Justin Siena-Ferndale game will be streamed over the internet at KVYN.com and KWPT.com. You have your choice of radio stations. Both are very easy to listen to and have great play-by-play and color people.
Salesian-Fort Bragg
I thought I heard a couple of different scores from the updates they were giving on the radio for the Ferndale game. One was 35-7 in the fourth, then I heard 45-7 in the fourth. Does anyone know what the final score was?
Friday, November 21, 2008
Two Teams in the Final Four
Well, the 2 seed and the 4 seed have advanced to the next round. The poll seems to indicate that there might be an upset tomorrow. I'm not so sure, but it will be an interesting day.
The Ferndale game will be on the web via the radio station KWPT.com. Just go to the website, scroll down to the football character running with a football, and click on whichever viewing platform your computer has (mine uses Windows Media Player). The radio will stream right through. I also heard on the game at Justin Siena that they will broadcast the game live from either Ferndale or at home against Dougherty Valley.
I will follow the Ferndale game online and will keep checking for scores from the Salesian-Fort Bragg game. I hope all of you who attended a game tonight had a great time -- even if your team didn't win.
The Ferndale game will be on the web via the radio station KWPT.com. Just go to the website, scroll down to the football character running with a football, and click on whichever viewing platform your computer has (mine uses Windows Media Player). The radio will stream right through. I also heard on the game at Justin Siena that they will broadcast the game live from either Ferndale or at home against Dougherty Valley.
I will follow the Ferndale game online and will keep checking for scores from the Salesian-Fort Bragg game. I hope all of you who attended a game tonight had a great time -- even if your team didn't win.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Playoff Games
There are two games Friday night:
St. Patrick-St. Vincent at Justin Siena (7:00 pm)
Clear Lake at Middletown (7:00 pm)
And two games Saturday afternoon:
Fort Bragg at Salesian (1:00 pm)
Dougherty Valley at Ferndale (1:00 pm)
Because of work, I can't make any games this weekend, but I will be at one game next weekend.
St. Patrick-St. Vincent at Justin Siena (7:00 pm)
Clear Lake at Middletown (7:00 pm)
And two games Saturday afternoon:
Fort Bragg at Salesian (1:00 pm)
Dougherty Valley at Ferndale (1:00 pm)
Because of work, I can't make any games this weekend, but I will be at one game next weekend.
Fort Bragg (8-2) at Salesian (7-2)
Salesian has scrapped together a pretty good season. They only have two losses, a 49-20 defeat at Middletown, and a 34-15 loss at Castlemont (Div. II). I think they are a lot better than the team that lost to Middletown early in the season, but so are a lot of the other teams in the playoffs. Fort Bragg also has two losses, a 20-8 set back against Middletown, and a 12-7 hard-fought loss to St. Vincent. So how do they match-up? Both teams have strong running games, with perhaps the edge to Salesian. Fort Bragg gets the edge with their passing game. The defenses are good, with both having a soft spot for power running games and the passing game, hence their losses to Middletown. This looks to be a close, close game. This one should be every bit as good to watch as the St. Patrick-St. Vincent-Justin Siena game. In the playoffs, home field gives a team a tiny advantage. I think it's one Salesian exploits by virtue of an extra-point.
Prediction: Salesian wins 21-20.
Prediction: Salesian wins 21-20.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Playoff Games on the Radio
I believe the Clear Lake-Middletown game will be on KNTI (99.5), but they do not have a webcast. However, I read on another comment at the Contra Costa Times that the Dougherty Valley-Ferndale game will be webcast on: KWPT.com.
Justin Siena usually has their home games webcast on KVYN, but they haven't updated their broadcast schedule to reflect the playoff game yet.
Justin Siena usually has their home games webcast on KVYN, but they haven't updated their broadcast schedule to reflect the playoff game yet.
Clear Lake (6-3-1) at Middletown (9-1)
This is a repeat of a game played on October 3rd. Middletown won 34-0. I was at that game. It rained and rained and rained. The field was muddy, the ball was slick. Two of Middletown's touchdowns came through the air, but the running game was what powered their win. The Mustangs dominated both sides of the line and the Cardinals just didn't seem to have any answers.
But that was still early in the season. I think Clear Lake's passing game has improved since then. The weather was also a factor that night; it might not be much of a factor this Friday. I would not count Clear Lake out just yet. They won the NCL I South by virtue of defeating St. Vincent, the only team to beat Middletown this year. I think this game will be a little closer than some might think. There are three factors that come into play for this game: 1. Middletown is the better team; 2. Middletown is the home team; 3. Clear Lake entered post season play after a tough loss to St. Helena. It's all about who is playing well now.
My Prediction: Middletown wins 35-14.
But that was still early in the season. I think Clear Lake's passing game has improved since then. The weather was also a factor that night; it might not be much of a factor this Friday. I would not count Clear Lake out just yet. They won the NCL I South by virtue of defeating St. Vincent, the only team to beat Middletown this year. I think this game will be a little closer than some might think. There are three factors that come into play for this game: 1. Middletown is the better team; 2. Middletown is the home team; 3. Clear Lake entered post season play after a tough loss to St. Helena. It's all about who is playing well now.
My Prediction: Middletown wins 35-14.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3) at Justin Siena (6-4)
I think this game, like all 4 vs. 5 seed games, should be a great one. Both teams run the veer offense, both have won NCS Section titles, and both play in leagues with larger schools. That said, the MCAL is a tad tougher than the BSAL, which is probably why Justin Siena got the 4 seed. I think if you were going to see one Division IV playoff game, it would be this one. Right now, it appears that Justin Siena is playing better. But the Bruins are a strong team that has the tools to beat the Braves.
My take? I think Justin Siena is the stronger team and will eventually prevail. I do think this game will be a squeaker until late in the 4th Quarter.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 38-28.
What do you think?
My take? I think Justin Siena is the stronger team and will eventually prevail. I do think this game will be a squeaker until late in the 4th Quarter.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 38-28.
What do you think?
Monday, November 17, 2008
Ferndale Statistics
I was emailed some great season stats from Ferndale. Chew on these a bit. I'll post some stats for Middletown and Clear Lake later in the week. If any of you have stats from other Div. IV playoff teams, post them as a comment or email them to me (my email address is in my profile).
Ferndale Statistics
Passing:
McKay 49/78 739 Yds 10 TD 4 INT (174.33 QB Rating)
Robertson 12/20 251 Yds 4 TD 0 INT
Griggs 1/4 43 Yds 1 INT
Rushing:
Del Biaggio 136 Att. 1163 Yds (8.5 avg.) 19 TD
Matyshock 63 Att. 514 Yds (8.2 avg.) 15 TD
Coppini 5 Att. 416 Yds (9.2 avg.) 4 TD
McKay 54 Att. 305 Yds (5.6 avg.) 8 TD
Griggs 11 Att. 88 Yds (8.0 avg.)
Robertson 15 Att. 82 Yds (5.5 avg.) 1 TD
Gurnee 10 Att. 43 Yds (4.3 avg.)
Receiving:
Slade 16 catches 364 Yds (22.8 avg.) 6 TD
Matyshock 12 catches 90 Yds (7.5 avg.) 2 TD
Griggs 11 catches 187 Yds (17.0 avg.) 2 TD
Del Biaggio 3 catches 94 Yds (31.3 avg.) 2 TD
Jones 6 catches 82 Yds (13.7 avg.) 1 TD
Coppini 4 catches 37 Yds (9.2 avg.)
Ambrosini 3 catches 75 Yds (25 avg.)
Gurnee 2 catches 30 Yds (15.0 avg.)
Ferndale Statistics
Passing:
McKay 49/78 739 Yds 10 TD 4 INT (174.33 QB Rating)
Robertson 12/20 251 Yds 4 TD 0 INT
Griggs 1/4 43 Yds 1 INT
Rushing:
Del Biaggio 136 Att. 1163 Yds (8.5 avg.) 19 TD
Matyshock 63 Att. 514 Yds (8.2 avg.) 15 TD
Coppini 5 Att. 416 Yds (9.2 avg.) 4 TD
McKay 54 Att. 305 Yds (5.6 avg.) 8 TD
Griggs 11 Att. 88 Yds (8.0 avg.)
Robertson 15 Att. 82 Yds (5.5 avg.) 1 TD
Gurnee 10 Att. 43 Yds (4.3 avg.)
Receiving:
Slade 16 catches 364 Yds (22.8 avg.) 6 TD
Matyshock 12 catches 90 Yds (7.5 avg.) 2 TD
Griggs 11 catches 187 Yds (17.0 avg.) 2 TD
Del Biaggio 3 catches 94 Yds (31.3 avg.) 2 TD
Jones 6 catches 82 Yds (13.7 avg.) 1 TD
Coppini 4 catches 37 Yds (9.2 avg.)
Ambrosini 3 catches 75 Yds (25 avg.)
Gurnee 2 catches 30 Yds (15.0 avg.)
Dougherty Valley (7-2) at Ferndale (10-0)
Dougherty Valley will make the long trip to Ferndale for Saturday's 1:00 game. Dougherty Valley has played Division I, II, III, and IV teams this season and has amassed an impressive 7-2 record. Though Ferndale plays in a league with some Division V schools, they routinely play non league games with Division III schools and schools with great football traditions. Two of the Division III schools Ferndale defeated this year, on their way to a 10-0 record, are in the Division III playoffs.
Dougherty Valley has had a great season with a very young team --their varsity squad is made up of 20 juniors and 9 sophomores with no seniors. This playoff game presents them with a valuable experience that will only make them better as they enter Diablo Foothill play next year as a Division III school. One thing they will learn rather quickly is just how good Ferndale is. There is a reason they are the number one seed and a reason no one has beaten them. Heck, the tightest game they have played this year was a 31-14 defeat of East Nicholas (a Northern Section playoff team). If Dougherty Valley is to have any chance at all, they have to keep the ball out of the Ferndale offense's hands -- long drives that consume time. Of course, that means staying ahead of a fast, bruising defense, which few have been able to crack this year. Perhaps the only real chance Dougherty Valley has is if an epidemic of the flu hits the Ferndale team.
It may be a good game for a quarter, but by then each team will have seen where and how they match up and Ferndale will take the game over. Do miracles happen? In sports, I believe they do. And that's exactly what Dougherty Valley will need.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 35-14.
Dougherty Valley has had a great season with a very young team --their varsity squad is made up of 20 juniors and 9 sophomores with no seniors. This playoff game presents them with a valuable experience that will only make them better as they enter Diablo Foothill play next year as a Division III school. One thing they will learn rather quickly is just how good Ferndale is. There is a reason they are the number one seed and a reason no one has beaten them. Heck, the tightest game they have played this year was a 31-14 defeat of East Nicholas (a Northern Section playoff team). If Dougherty Valley is to have any chance at all, they have to keep the ball out of the Ferndale offense's hands -- long drives that consume time. Of course, that means staying ahead of a fast, bruising defense, which few have been able to crack this year. Perhaps the only real chance Dougherty Valley has is if an epidemic of the flu hits the Ferndale team.
It may be a good game for a quarter, but by then each team will have seen where and how they match up and Ferndale will take the game over. Do miracles happen? In sports, I believe they do. And that's exactly what Dougherty Valley will need.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 35-14.
The Big Games
I will preview all of the Division IV playoff games this week. Later today, I will preview the Ferndale-Dougherty Valley game; Tuesday I will preview the Justin Siena-St. Patrick-St. Vincent match-up; Wednesday I will preview the Middletown-Clear Lake game; and Thursday I will preview the Salesian-Fort Bragg game.
I may even spend a little time discussing the Division V playoffs sometime this week.
I may even spend a little time discussing the Division V playoffs sometime this week.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Second Thought...
It does look like the seeding committee rewarded winning your league. That may be why Salesian got a 3 seed and why Clear Lake was given the 7 seed instead of the 8 seed.
So in some ways, perhaps it does make some sense.
So in some ways, perhaps it does make some sense.
Initial Thoughts...
Looking at the seedings, I think Ferndale got the shaft a little bit. Let's assume that Ferndale and Middletown make it to the second round. Ferndale will have to face the winner of the St.Patrick-St. Vincent - Justin Siena game. Middletown would face the winner of the Salesian-Fort Bragg game. I think Justin Siena and St. Patrick-St. Vincent are better than both Fort Bragg and Salesian. Middletown beat Salesian in week one 49-20 and Fort Bragg 22-8. So I See a tougher road for Ferndale than for Middletown. Now, of course I think Ferndale can get by both, but at this level, each team is good enough to beat another on a given day and the better a team is, the more days they have to beat you.
NCS Division IV Seedings
1. Ferndale (10-0)
2. Middletown (9-1)
3. Salesian (7-2)
4. Justin Siena (6-4)
5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3)
6. Fort Bragg (8-2)
7. Clear Lake (6-3-1)
8. Dougherty Valley (7-2)
2. Middletown (9-1)
3. Salesian (7-2)
4. Justin Siena (6-4)
5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3)
6. Fort Bragg (8-2)
7. Clear Lake (6-3-1)
8. Dougherty Valley (7-2)
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Corrected Time of Meeting
The seeding meeting will take place at 9:00 am, so we might know sometime Sunday afternoon.
Seedings
Tomorrow is the big day...I'll post the seedings as soon as they come out. I think the meeting is at 1:00 pm. The seedings are usually posted on the NCS site by 6:00 pm.
Pre-Seedings Seeding
After a couple of last night's games -- namely Clear Lake's loss and St. Patrick-St. Vincent's loss, I have reworked my seeding prediction (assuming Justin Siena and Ferndale win today).
1. Ferndale (10-0)
2. Middletown (9-1)
3. Justin Siena (6-4)
4. Salesian (8-2)
5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3)
6. Fort Bragg (8-2)
7. Dougherty Valley (7-2)
8. Clear Lake (6-3-1)
All four top seeds would host games and each team would open against a team they had not played in the regular season.
I did hear that both Cloverdale and St. Helena would apply for an at-large birth. I would assume St. Mary's would as well if they win today. All three of those teams would be 5-5. I think Berean Christian will apply as well. Their record is 7-3. Dougherty Valley should be a sure thing in the playoffs, but you never know what happens in the meeting -- or if all the team reps show up.
If you think you know what the seedings will be, post it as a comment here.
1. Ferndale (10-0)
2. Middletown (9-1)
3. Justin Siena (6-4)
4. Salesian (8-2)
5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3)
6. Fort Bragg (8-2)
7. Dougherty Valley (7-2)
8. Clear Lake (6-3-1)
All four top seeds would host games and each team would open against a team they had not played in the regular season.
I did hear that both Cloverdale and St. Helena would apply for an at-large birth. I would assume St. Mary's would as well if they win today. All three of those teams would be 5-5. I think Berean Christian will apply as well. Their record is 7-3. Dougherty Valley should be a sure thing in the playoffs, but you never know what happens in the meeting -- or if all the team reps show up.
If you think you know what the seedings will be, post it as a comment here.
Tomorrow's Games
That's all the games from tonight. Tomorrow will be the last few games of the regular season for 2008.
Friday Night
The only scores I'm waiting on is the final from Middletown-Lower Lake (of course, the outcome is not in doubt -- it was 41-8 at halftime) and the St. Vincent-Kelseyville game...That one may be pretty interesting.
Friday, November 14, 2008
One Final...and some in progress...
Final:
John Swett 36, Albany 34 (in OT)
In Progress:
St. Patrick-St. Vincent 21, Piedmont 7 (Half)
Berean Christian 41, CSD 6 (Half)
Middletown 28, Lower Lake 0 (1st Qtr)
John Swett 36, Albany 34 (in OT)
In Progress:
St. Patrick-St. Vincent 21, Piedmont 7 (Half)
Berean Christian 41, CSD 6 (Half)
Middletown 28, Lower Lake 0 (1st Qtr)
Games this Weekend
There are four games on Saturday this weekend:
Salesian at Harker
St. Mary's at Kennedy
McKinleyville at Ferndale
Justin Siena at Tamalpias
All the rest are on Friday night. I'll update scores as soon as I get them. If you come back from a game and the score isn't posted, please post that score here.
Also, I got a nice email from someone in Ferndale. They shared their stats for the season. I'll post those sometime tonight as well.
Salesian at Harker
St. Mary's at Kennedy
McKinleyville at Ferndale
Justin Siena at Tamalpias
All the rest are on Friday night. I'll update scores as soon as I get them. If you come back from a game and the score isn't posted, please post that score here.
Also, I got a nice email from someone in Ferndale. They shared their stats for the season. I'll post those sometime tonight as well.
Friday Night
There are a number of games with playoff seeding implications and a number of games that I think will be close, interesting games to follow.
The games that may affect the seedings:
Clear Lake at St. Helena -- I think Clear Lake has to win to secure a spot higher than 8. If they lose, especially if they lose big, Dougherty Valley might edge them out.
St. Patrick-St. Vincent at Piedmont -- The Bruins must win to keep their hopes for a 2 or 3 seed alive. If they lose, they might just slip to the 4 seed.
Justin Siena at Tamalpias -- The Braves are in the playoffs, even at 5-5, but if they win and finish the regular season at 6-4, they may squeak into the 4 seed. If St. Patrick-St. Vincents loses and Justin Siena wins, the Braves just might slip into the 3 seed.
McKinleyville at Ferndale -- Ferndale should win this game, but don't completely count out McKinelyville. This is the last game for each and McKinleyville is looking to secure a spot in the Division III playoffs (perhaps their last year in Division III). If pigs begin flying, Hummers get 40 mpg, and Ferndale loses, the seedings really get jumbled up. I think there would be a good possibility that three teams that are not league champs could be in the top four seeds and two of them may have to travel in the first round.
Some interesting games:
Upper Lake at Cloverdale -- This one looks like it will be a great game. If the score is close, look for Upper Lake to have a chance.
St. Mary's at Kennedy -- This is the clash of 4-5 teams. St. Mary's is a bit of an enigma. I think they are better than a couple of teams that might make the playoffs, and if they can even their record to 5-5, there might be a slight glimmer of hope for a seed. But, one of their wins was a forfeit (in a game where they actually lost). So I'm not sure that glimmer will be bright enough, but it should be an interesting game to follow.
The games that may affect the seedings:
Clear Lake at St. Helena -- I think Clear Lake has to win to secure a spot higher than 8. If they lose, especially if they lose big, Dougherty Valley might edge them out.
St. Patrick-St. Vincent at Piedmont -- The Bruins must win to keep their hopes for a 2 or 3 seed alive. If they lose, they might just slip to the 4 seed.
Justin Siena at Tamalpias -- The Braves are in the playoffs, even at 5-5, but if they win and finish the regular season at 6-4, they may squeak into the 4 seed. If St. Patrick-St. Vincents loses and Justin Siena wins, the Braves just might slip into the 3 seed.
McKinleyville at Ferndale -- Ferndale should win this game, but don't completely count out McKinelyville. This is the last game for each and McKinleyville is looking to secure a spot in the Division III playoffs (perhaps their last year in Division III). If pigs begin flying, Hummers get 40 mpg, and Ferndale loses, the seedings really get jumbled up. I think there would be a good possibility that three teams that are not league champs could be in the top four seeds and two of them may have to travel in the first round.
Some interesting games:
Upper Lake at Cloverdale -- This one looks like it will be a great game. If the score is close, look for Upper Lake to have a chance.
St. Mary's at Kennedy -- This is the clash of 4-5 teams. St. Mary's is a bit of an enigma. I think they are better than a couple of teams that might make the playoffs, and if they can even their record to 5-5, there might be a slight glimmer of hope for a seed. But, one of their wins was a forfeit (in a game where they actually lost). So I'm not sure that glimmer will be bright enough, but it should be an interesting game to follow.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
This Weekend
As always, I will post scores during games as they are underway and will post final scores as I get them on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Also, I will post the playoff seedings as soon as the NCS sets them on Sunday. They usually have them up by 6:00 PM.
Final Preview NCL I
St. Vincent (8-1) at Kelseyville (4-4)
If I were previewing this game six weeks ago, I would have picked St. Vincent in a slaughter -- especially after K-ville got blown out by both Fort Bragg and Middletown. But something has happened to St. Vincent, especially on the road. While they were able to defeat the top two teams in all of the NCL I at home, their road record has been fragile -- breaking once. Their road games: 14-2 win over 0-9 Willits; 8-7 loss to 6-2-1 Clear Lake; and a 7-3 win over 4-5 St. Helena. How will they do on the road against 4-4-1 Kelseyville? I think a pattern has emerged.
Prediction: St. Vincent wins 14-13.
Middletown (8-1) at Lower Lake (1-8)
This should be an easy win for Middletown. I don't see a record point deluge because Middletown does take steps to keep from scoring too much (taking a knee to let time run out inside an opponent's five yard line at halftime in two games this season). The Middletown starters won't play more than a quarter and a half.
Prediction: Middletown wins 49-7.
Fort Bragg (7-2) at Willits (0-9)
Like the game above, this should be an easy one for Fort Bragg. But this is in Willits, where strange things have been known to happen. But I think the strangest thing would be if Willits finds the endzone.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 42-0.
Upper Lake (4-5) at Cloverdale (4-5)
This will probably be a great game to watch. Upper Lake has played tough against St. Helena and Clear Lake. It's the last game and both teams will use the kitchen sink. I think this will be my upset special.
Prediction: Upper Lake wins 27-20.
Clear Lake (6-2-1) at St. Helena (4-5)
Clear Lake has already secured their spot in the playoffs, but they can't overlook St. Helena. I see Clear Lake hovering around the 7 or 8 seed. If they lose or if the game is tight, I think they are a lock for the 8th seed. If they win and win big, 7 might be their reward. And what kind of reward would that be? Well, they wouldn't have to travel to Ferndale the following week!
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 28-21.
If I were previewing this game six weeks ago, I would have picked St. Vincent in a slaughter -- especially after K-ville got blown out by both Fort Bragg and Middletown. But something has happened to St. Vincent, especially on the road. While they were able to defeat the top two teams in all of the NCL I at home, their road record has been fragile -- breaking once. Their road games: 14-2 win over 0-9 Willits; 8-7 loss to 6-2-1 Clear Lake; and a 7-3 win over 4-5 St. Helena. How will they do on the road against 4-4-1 Kelseyville? I think a pattern has emerged.
Prediction: St. Vincent wins 14-13.
Middletown (8-1) at Lower Lake (1-8)
This should be an easy win for Middletown. I don't see a record point deluge because Middletown does take steps to keep from scoring too much (taking a knee to let time run out inside an opponent's five yard line at halftime in two games this season). The Middletown starters won't play more than a quarter and a half.
Prediction: Middletown wins 49-7.
Fort Bragg (7-2) at Willits (0-9)
Like the game above, this should be an easy one for Fort Bragg. But this is in Willits, where strange things have been known to happen. But I think the strangest thing would be if Willits finds the endzone.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 42-0.
Upper Lake (4-5) at Cloverdale (4-5)
This will probably be a great game to watch. Upper Lake has played tough against St. Helena and Clear Lake. It's the last game and both teams will use the kitchen sink. I think this will be my upset special.
Prediction: Upper Lake wins 27-20.
Clear Lake (6-2-1) at St. Helena (4-5)
Clear Lake has already secured their spot in the playoffs, but they can't overlook St. Helena. I see Clear Lake hovering around the 7 or 8 seed. If they lose or if the game is tight, I think they are a lock for the 8th seed. If they win and win big, 7 might be their reward. And what kind of reward would that be? Well, they wouldn't have to travel to Ferndale the following week!
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 28-21.
Final Regular Season Preview (Bay League, Bay Shore, MCAL, and HDNL Little Five
Bay League
Berean Christian (6-3) at CSD (2-7)
There isn't much Berean Christian can do to get into the playoffs. Two of their three losses did them in (to Salesian and to Dougherty Valley). I think they'll take it out on CSD.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 43-7.
Harker (4-4) at Salesian (6-2)
On paper, this should be an easy victory for Salesian. But Harker can give a fight, especially if Salesian is caught looking ahead to the playoffs. But I think they'll be focused on the task at hand because this game has some seeding implications.
Prediction: Salesian wins 46-6.
Bay Shore
John Swett (2-7) at Albany (3-6)
John Swett would love to close out a horrible season with an upset victory. I just don't see it.
Prediction: Albany wins 32-14.
St. Mary's (4-5) at Kennedy (4-5)
Each team is fighting to finish the season with an even record. But only one, St. Mary's, harbors any hope for a playoff birth. Though their post-season prospects are very, very slim, it still gives them enough mana to scrap a little harder.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 27-20.
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-2) at Piedmont (7-2)
For each, this is a must win. St. Patrick-St. Vincent can drop a seed or two in the Division IV playoffs if they lose, and the same goes for Piedmont in the Division III playoffs. Piedmont plays that whacky A-11 offense where just about everybody on offense can be a potential ball carrier, but how will they play against the Bruins? If it is a high scoring game, I give the slight edge to Piedmont. If less than 40 total points are scored, I give the edge to the Bruins. I think I see a lot of points.
Prediction: Piedmont wins 42-35.
MCAL
Justin Siena (5-4) at Tamalpias (5-4)
For Justin Siena, the playoffs began last week. In order to continue the sweep, and to capture a potential top four seed, they must defeat Tamalpias. If they lose, they likely drop into the lower half of the bracket.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 35-13.
HDNL Little Five
McKinleyville (7-2) at Ferndale (9-0)
Though Ferndale is heavily favored to win (they beat McKinleyville 33-6 earlier in the year), they cannot ignore the importance of this game. It's really the HDNL Little Five championship. If Ferndale loses, they will fall from the number one seed. I see a tight game.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 14-6.
Berean Christian (6-3) at CSD (2-7)
There isn't much Berean Christian can do to get into the playoffs. Two of their three losses did them in (to Salesian and to Dougherty Valley). I think they'll take it out on CSD.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 43-7.
Harker (4-4) at Salesian (6-2)
On paper, this should be an easy victory for Salesian. But Harker can give a fight, especially if Salesian is caught looking ahead to the playoffs. But I think they'll be focused on the task at hand because this game has some seeding implications.
Prediction: Salesian wins 46-6.
Bay Shore
John Swett (2-7) at Albany (3-6)
John Swett would love to close out a horrible season with an upset victory. I just don't see it.
Prediction: Albany wins 32-14.
St. Mary's (4-5) at Kennedy (4-5)
Each team is fighting to finish the season with an even record. But only one, St. Mary's, harbors any hope for a playoff birth. Though their post-season prospects are very, very slim, it still gives them enough mana to scrap a little harder.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 27-20.
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-2) at Piedmont (7-2)
For each, this is a must win. St. Patrick-St. Vincent can drop a seed or two in the Division IV playoffs if they lose, and the same goes for Piedmont in the Division III playoffs. Piedmont plays that whacky A-11 offense where just about everybody on offense can be a potential ball carrier, but how will they play against the Bruins? If it is a high scoring game, I give the slight edge to Piedmont. If less than 40 total points are scored, I give the edge to the Bruins. I think I see a lot of points.
Prediction: Piedmont wins 42-35.
MCAL
Justin Siena (5-4) at Tamalpias (5-4)
For Justin Siena, the playoffs began last week. In order to continue the sweep, and to capture a potential top four seed, they must defeat Tamalpias. If they lose, they likely drop into the lower half of the bracket.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 35-13.
HDNL Little Five
McKinleyville (7-2) at Ferndale (9-0)
Though Ferndale is heavily favored to win (they beat McKinleyville 33-6 earlier in the year), they cannot ignore the importance of this game. It's really the HDNL Little Five championship. If Ferndale loses, they will fall from the number one seed. I see a tight game.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 14-6.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Note on the Rankings
As I wrote, I do see Justin Siena jumping over Fort Bragg to claim the 4th spot. I also see Dougherty valley jumping over Clear Lake (unless Clear Lake crushes St. Helena). If Clear Lake struggles at all next Friday night, look for Dougherty Valley to be seeded #7. I think the seeding committee would prefer this because it would eliminate at least one potential match-up where a top four team would have to travel. Remember, even if you are seeded in the top four, if you are not the champion of your league and your opponent is, you have to travel. League champs host the first game. I think they take this into account when they do the seedings. Even though Clear Lake would be a league champ, they would still travel to Ferndale because Ferndale would also be a league champ (well, if they win this weekend). The other league champ that is likely to be seeded in the bottom half of the bracket is Salesian. They may get to host a first round game, depending on who they are pitted against. Some may be wondering, "then why try for a top seed if you don't get to host a game?" Well, the answer is simple. The rule about being a league champ only applies to the first round game. If you make it to the second round and your are seeded higher, you get to host a second round game.
Division IV Rankings
- Ferndale (9-0) – Beat St. Bernhard’s 47-12.
- Middletown (8-1) – Clinched NCL I North by crushing Kelseyville 56-0.
- St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-2) – Plays Piedmont for 2nd place in the Bay Shore League.
- Fort Bragg (7-2) – Beat Cloverdale 28-7.
- Justin Siena (5-4) – Dominated Terra Linda 47-6.
- Salesian (6-2) – Clinched Bay League title with 35-0 defeat of St. Elizabeth.
- Clear Lake (6-2-1) – Squeaked by Upper Lake 20-14.
- Dougherty Valley (7-2) – Beat 0-9 American 24-17.
I had to reboot the rankings...Looking at each team that is likely to be in the playoffs and positioning them according to how good they are playing right now. I believe is Justin Siena can get by Tamalpias, they will skip over Fort Bragg and secure #4 for the playoffs.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Dougherty Valley
There has been some talk in the comments section regarding Dougherty Valley and I think it has more to do with the seeding process as a whole as opposed to one team in particular. Again, the seeding process can be very subjective, but there's no way to make the process 100% objective. At the meeting itself, there is a whole lot of politicking going on.
When the committee doesn't have the luxury of head-to-head games to decide if team A is seeded ahead of team B, they instead look at their games with common opponents. This can be misleading. Middletown and Fort Bragg both lost to St. Vincent early in the season (21-14 and 12-7 respectively). Middletown and Fort Bragg both beat Clear Lake by a fairly comfortable margin (35-0 and 28-6), yet Clear Lake beat St. Vincent 8-7. This is common in high school football, especially small school football. One or two players out for a game can change the whole dynamic.
If the seeding committee doesn't have a common opponent to judge team A and B, then they look to common opponents of common opponents. This is where the rubber leaves the road. Of course, this is also where we get into strength of schedule. Some Division IV schools play in leagues that are stocked with Division III and II schools, such as Bay Shore and Marin County, and Dougherty Valley, a freelance school, played six such opponents (including two Division I schools). Those schools, of course, have a tougher schedule, but one thing that should be very clear is that the size of the school doesn't necessarily relate to how good a team is. I don't think that anyone doubts that Ferndale is the number one Division IV school, even though they are really a Division V school. And, on the other side, I think that Division I American, a team Dougherty Valley just beat 24-17, would finish near the bottom of every league with Division IV teams.
My one gripe in all of this is the lack of great preseason games. Some Div. IV leagues just don't have enough non-league games. The NCL I teams only get one true non-league game. Each team from the NCL I North must play each team from the NCL I South and visa-versa. Ferndale only gets two non-league games. I think if you want to be competitive and you have true playoff hopes, you should either schedule games with top teams in the other leagues, or schedule games with Division II or III teams in the section.
But this year, there has been little head-to-head between potential playoff teams (I think Middletown's 49-20 win over Salesian is the only one) -- not to mention all the potential playoff teams in the NCL I.
So the results of this year's seeding process is likely to make us scratch our heads once more. But we will still pull and root for the top teams in Division IV as the final curtain for 2008 draws to a close.
When the committee doesn't have the luxury of head-to-head games to decide if team A is seeded ahead of team B, they instead look at their games with common opponents. This can be misleading. Middletown and Fort Bragg both lost to St. Vincent early in the season (21-14 and 12-7 respectively). Middletown and Fort Bragg both beat Clear Lake by a fairly comfortable margin (35-0 and 28-6), yet Clear Lake beat St. Vincent 8-7. This is common in high school football, especially small school football. One or two players out for a game can change the whole dynamic.
If the seeding committee doesn't have a common opponent to judge team A and B, then they look to common opponents of common opponents. This is where the rubber leaves the road. Of course, this is also where we get into strength of schedule. Some Division IV schools play in leagues that are stocked with Division III and II schools, such as Bay Shore and Marin County, and Dougherty Valley, a freelance school, played six such opponents (including two Division I schools). Those schools, of course, have a tougher schedule, but one thing that should be very clear is that the size of the school doesn't necessarily relate to how good a team is. I don't think that anyone doubts that Ferndale is the number one Division IV school, even though they are really a Division V school. And, on the other side, I think that Division I American, a team Dougherty Valley just beat 24-17, would finish near the bottom of every league with Division IV teams.
My one gripe in all of this is the lack of great preseason games. Some Div. IV leagues just don't have enough non-league games. The NCL I teams only get one true non-league game. Each team from the NCL I North must play each team from the NCL I South and visa-versa. Ferndale only gets two non-league games. I think if you want to be competitive and you have true playoff hopes, you should either schedule games with top teams in the other leagues, or schedule games with Division II or III teams in the section.
But this year, there has been little head-to-head between potential playoff teams (I think Middletown's 49-20 win over Salesian is the only one) -- not to mention all the potential playoff teams in the NCL I.
So the results of this year's seeding process is likely to make us scratch our heads once more. But we will still pull and root for the top teams in Division IV as the final curtain for 2008 draws to a close.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Other Saturday Games
I'm still trying to find the score for the Ferndale-St. Bernard game and the Berean Christian-Emory game. If you know the score, post it here as a comment and I'll get it up on the main board.
Saturday Score
Clear Lake 20, Upper Lake 14
Read the comment to the post for the Harker-CSD post for info on this game.
Read the comment to the post for the Harker-CSD post for info on this game.
Friday Night
Well, I think we can safely say that 7 of 8 playoff teams are set.
Ferndale is in, Middletown clinched the NCL I North; Salesian clinched the Bay League; St. Patrick-St. Vincents will get a spot; Justin Siena is in, Fort Bragg should make it; and Dougherty Valley will get a spot. Clear Lake has to win their game with Upper Lake today to clinch a spot.
So we know the teams. The question is, what seed will they get? I think Ferndale is definitely the number one seed. But seeds two through eight are a mystery. How much weight will the seeding committee give an 8-2 or 7-3 St. Patrick-St. Vincent? Where will a 6-4 or 5-5 Justin Siena go? Both of those teams play in a league stocked with mostly Division III schools, so their strength of schedule is much stronger than other schools in Division IV. But does that mean they are truly better than a 9-1 Middletown or a 7-2 Salesian? It's hard to say. There is quite a bit of subjective reasoning that takes place during the seeding meeting. I know they try to make it as fair and as objective as they can, and they do have other concerns -- such as travel distance. But at the end of the day, they assign a spot to each team that most of us will gripe and grumble about. I suppose their is no winning if you are a member of the seeding committee.
I'll post scores from today's Division IV games as soon as I get them. If you get a score, post it as a comment here. Also, be sure to read comments. Sometimes people post more information about a game.
Ferndale is in, Middletown clinched the NCL I North; Salesian clinched the Bay League; St. Patrick-St. Vincents will get a spot; Justin Siena is in, Fort Bragg should make it; and Dougherty Valley will get a spot. Clear Lake has to win their game with Upper Lake today to clinch a spot.
So we know the teams. The question is, what seed will they get? I think Ferndale is definitely the number one seed. But seeds two through eight are a mystery. How much weight will the seeding committee give an 8-2 or 7-3 St. Patrick-St. Vincent? Where will a 6-4 or 5-5 Justin Siena go? Both of those teams play in a league stocked with mostly Division III schools, so their strength of schedule is much stronger than other schools in Division IV. But does that mean they are truly better than a 9-1 Middletown or a 7-2 Salesian? It's hard to say. There is quite a bit of subjective reasoning that takes place during the seeding meeting. I know they try to make it as fair and as objective as they can, and they do have other concerns -- such as travel distance. But at the end of the day, they assign a spot to each team that most of us will gripe and grumble about. I suppose their is no winning if you are a member of the seeding committee.
I'll post scores from today's Division IV games as soon as I get them. If you get a score, post it as a comment here. Also, be sure to read comments. Sometimes people post more information about a game.
Another final score from last night
Lower Lake 23, Willits 6
The CSD-Harker game may be played tonight. I'll keep checking for that score.
The CSD-Harker game may be played tonight. I'll keep checking for that score.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Friday Night Football...
The only scores I'm waiting on is Lower Lake at Willits, and CSD at Harker...Other than that, there were no surprises. I'll comment more on tonight's games tomorrow.
Another Final Score
Salesian 35, St. Elizabeth 0
In the Fourth Quarter, Middletown was beating Kelseyville 56-0. I'll post a final score later (my spotters for this game left early).
In the Fourth Quarter, Middletown was beating Kelseyville 56-0. I'll post a final score later (my spotters for this game left early).
More Final Scores
Piedmont 55, John Swett 12
St. Pat-St. Vin 45, Moreau Catholic 6
Justin Siena 47, Terra Linda 6
St. Pat-St. Vin 45, Moreau Catholic 6
Justin Siena 47, Terra Linda 6
Games in Progress III
Justin Siena 47, Terra Linda 6 (4th Qtr)
Middletown 49, Kelseyville 0 (3rd Qtr)
Salesian 35, St. Elizabeth 0 (3rd Qtr)
St. Pat-St. Vin 31, Moreau Catholic 6 (3rd Qtr)
Middletown 49, Kelseyville 0 (3rd Qtr)
Salesian 35, St. Elizabeth 0 (3rd Qtr)
St. Pat-St. Vin 31, Moreau Catholic 6 (3rd Qtr)
Games in Progress II
Justin Siena 41, Terra Linda 6 (3rd Qtr)
Middletown 28, Kelseyville 0 (Half)
Salesian 21, St. Elizabeth 0 (Half)
St. Patrick-St. Vincent 24, Moreau Catholic 0 (Half)
Dougherty Valley 24, American 14 (3rd Qtr)
Middletown 28, Kelseyville 0 (Half)
Salesian 21, St. Elizabeth 0 (Half)
St. Patrick-St. Vincent 24, Moreau Catholic 0 (Half)
Dougherty Valley 24, American 14 (3rd Qtr)
Games in Progress
Salesian 14, St. Elizabeth 0 (1st Qtr)
St. Patrick-St. Vincent 15, Moreau Catholic 0 (1st Qtr)
Piedmont 49, John Swett 6 (Half)
Dougherty Valley 21, American 14 (Half)
Justin Siena 14, Terra Linda 0 (2nd Qtr)
St. Patrick-St. Vincent 15, Moreau Catholic 0 (1st Qtr)
Piedmont 49, John Swett 6 (Half)
Dougherty Valley 21, American 14 (Half)
Justin Siena 14, Terra Linda 0 (2nd Qtr)
Tonight's Games
When you get back from a game, post the score here if we don't have it already. Just post as a comment to this post.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Dougherty Valley
American (0-8) at Dougherty Valley (6-2) Friday night
This is Dougherty Valley's last regular season game. If they beat winless American, they will finish with a 7-2 record and a likely at-large bid for the Division IV playoffs if they choose to apply for it. American, while winless, is still a Division I team that is about equal to Mission San Jose, who lost 16-0 to Dougherty Valley last week. I think Dougherty Valley will win, but it may be a close game.
Prediction: Dougherty Valley wins 12-7.
This is Dougherty Valley's last regular season game. If they beat winless American, they will finish with a 7-2 record and a likely at-large bid for the Division IV playoffs if they choose to apply for it. American, while winless, is still a Division I team that is about equal to Mission San Jose, who lost 16-0 to Dougherty Valley last week. I think Dougherty Valley will win, but it may be a close game.
Prediction: Dougherty Valley wins 12-7.
NCL I Preview
Cloverdale (4-4) at Fort Bragg (6-2) Friday night
Fort Bragg looks to bounce back from last week's loss to Middletown and Cloverdale will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I think this game might be closer than expected.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 26-20.
Kelseyville (4-3-1) at Middletown (7-1) Friday night
This is the first of two potential trap games this weekend. On paper, this should be an easy game for Middletown, but events rarely transpire as the formulas written on flattened wood pulp. If MIddletown is hungry and plays that way, they'll dominate from the start. But, if they are a little over-confident, a small window of opportunity will open for the Kelseyville Knights.
Prediction: Middletown wins 34-8.
Lower Lake (0-8) at Willits (0-8) Friday night
This would actually be a great game to see in person. Both teams are hungry for their first win and each realizes this is their best opportunity all season. I see a back and forth game until one pulls it out. In fact, my mind has gone back and forth on this. I changed my prediction.
Prediction: Lower Lake wins 34-26.
St. Vincent (7-1) at St. Helena (4-4) Friday night
Can St. Vincent recover from their first loss of the season? How good of a road team are they? They have only played two road games thus far, barely escaping 0-8 Willits with a win (14-2), and losing to Clear Lake 8-7. I see a storm brewing. For the second week in a row, I think St. Vincent will be upset.
Prediction: St. Helena wins 20-14.
Clear Lake (5-2-1) at Upper Lake (4-4) Saturday afternoon
This is the second trap game of the weekend. Clear Lake can't get caught feeling like they've already won the NCL I South. There's a lot of work yet to do -- especially in Upper Lake. The Cougars can definitely score points and they will make Clear Lake fans sweat 'til the end.
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 32-30.
Fort Bragg looks to bounce back from last week's loss to Middletown and Cloverdale will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I think this game might be closer than expected.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 26-20.
Kelseyville (4-3-1) at Middletown (7-1) Friday night
This is the first of two potential trap games this weekend. On paper, this should be an easy game for Middletown, but events rarely transpire as the formulas written on flattened wood pulp. If MIddletown is hungry and plays that way, they'll dominate from the start. But, if they are a little over-confident, a small window of opportunity will open for the Kelseyville Knights.
Prediction: Middletown wins 34-8.
Lower Lake (0-8) at Willits (0-8) Friday night
This would actually be a great game to see in person. Both teams are hungry for their first win and each realizes this is their best opportunity all season. I see a back and forth game until one pulls it out. In fact, my mind has gone back and forth on this. I changed my prediction.
Prediction: Lower Lake wins 34-26.
St. Vincent (7-1) at St. Helena (4-4) Friday night
Can St. Vincent recover from their first loss of the season? How good of a road team are they? They have only played two road games thus far, barely escaping 0-8 Willits with a win (14-2), and losing to Clear Lake 8-7. I see a storm brewing. For the second week in a row, I think St. Vincent will be upset.
Prediction: St. Helena wins 20-14.
Clear Lake (5-2-1) at Upper Lake (4-4) Saturday afternoon
This is the second trap game of the weekend. Clear Lake can't get caught feeling like they've already won the NCL I South. There's a lot of work yet to do -- especially in Upper Lake. The Cougars can definitely score points and they will make Clear Lake fans sweat 'til the end.
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 32-30.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Preview of this Week's Games (Except NCL)
Bay League
Salesian (5-2) at St. Elizabeth (5-3) Friday night
Salesian can claim the Bay League title with a win. If they lose, there will likely be a three-way tie for first place for the third year in a row.
Prediction: Salesian wins 35-21.
Emory (0-8) at Berean Christian (5-3) Saturday afternoon
Berean Christian is still suffering the post-blowout effects of last week's loss to Salesian. Their playoff hopes are on life support.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 28-7.
Bay Shore
Albany (3-5) at St. Mary's (3-5) Friday night
St. Mary's can salvage a rough season with a respectable 5-5 record if they can win this game and next week's game at Kennedy. This looks like a tight game.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 32-27.
John Swett (2-6) at Piedmont (6-2) Friday night
I just don't think Swett has the tools to compete with a Piedmont team that is stocked with fast athletes and runs the unique A-11 offense.
Prediction: Piedmont wins 42-13.
Moreau Catholic 0-8) at St. Patrick-St. Vincent (6-2) Friday night
St. Vincent-St. Patrick was humbled in last week's 48-6 thrashing from undefeated Encinal. I pity the 0-8 Moreau Catholic Mariners for being served to the Bruins so soon after that game.
Prediction: St. Patrick-St. Vincent wins 47-0.
HDLN Little Five
Ferndale (8-0) at St. Bernhard's (5-3) Saturday afternoon
Ferndale is just waiting for the playoffs to start. In the meantime, they have a couple of tasks to attend to. One is this weekend.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 38-0.
MCAL
Terra Linda (1-7) at Justin Siena (4-4) Friday night
Justin Siena must win this game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. I think they're in.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 38-7.
I will preview NCL games tomorrow.
Salesian (5-2) at St. Elizabeth (5-3) Friday night
Salesian can claim the Bay League title with a win. If they lose, there will likely be a three-way tie for first place for the third year in a row.
Prediction: Salesian wins 35-21.
Emory (0-8) at Berean Christian (5-3) Saturday afternoon
Berean Christian is still suffering the post-blowout effects of last week's loss to Salesian. Their playoff hopes are on life support.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 28-7.
Bay Shore
Albany (3-5) at St. Mary's (3-5) Friday night
St. Mary's can salvage a rough season with a respectable 5-5 record if they can win this game and next week's game at Kennedy. This looks like a tight game.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 32-27.
John Swett (2-6) at Piedmont (6-2) Friday night
I just don't think Swett has the tools to compete with a Piedmont team that is stocked with fast athletes and runs the unique A-11 offense.
Prediction: Piedmont wins 42-13.
Moreau Catholic 0-8) at St. Patrick-St. Vincent (6-2) Friday night
St. Vincent-St. Patrick was humbled in last week's 48-6 thrashing from undefeated Encinal. I pity the 0-8 Moreau Catholic Mariners for being served to the Bruins so soon after that game.
Prediction: St. Patrick-St. Vincent wins 47-0.
HDLN Little Five
Ferndale (8-0) at St. Bernhard's (5-3) Saturday afternoon
Ferndale is just waiting for the playoffs to start. In the meantime, they have a couple of tasks to attend to. One is this weekend.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 38-0.
MCAL
Terra Linda (1-7) at Justin Siena (4-4) Friday night
Justin Siena must win this game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. I think they're in.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 38-7.
I will preview NCL games tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
NCS Division IV Rankings This Week
1. Ferndale (8-0) – Beat South Fork 35-0.
2. Middletown (7-1) – Beat Fort Bragg 22-8.
3. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (6-2) – Lost to undefeated Division III Encinal 48-6.
4. Dougherty Valley (6-2) – Beat Division I Mission San Jose 16-0.
5. Fort Bragg (6-2) – Lost to Middletown 22-8.
6. Clear Lake (5-2-1) – Upset St. Vincent 8-7.
7. Justin Siena (4-4) – Idle, next up is Terra Linda.
8. Salesian (5-2) – Crushed Berean Christian 50-7.
Monday, November 3, 2008
The Playoff Picture
Well, the cream seems to be rising to the top. Middletown is the favorite to win the NCL I North and Clear Lake is in position to capture the NCL I South crown. Berean Christian was essentially blown out of the playoffs by Salesian, who now looks like the champ of the Bay League (as long as they can get by St. Elizabeth next weekend). Of course, we can't take anything for granted in the Bay League because the last two years we've seen a three-way tie for first (two of the teams involved were Kings Academy and Sacred Heart Prep -- both are in another section now).
St. Patrick-St. Vincent won't get an automatic bid after losing to new Bay Shore foe Enicinal 48-6, but they do play in a tough league with some Division III schools and if they can win out from here, they will likely get a top four seed.
The same goes for Justin Siena, who also plays in a tough league with both Division II and Division III schools. If they win out and finish with a 6-4 record, they too, will likely get a top four seed.
That leaves two more league champs out of the NCL I South and the Bay League, then two at-large births for the playoffs this year. Of course, one team I haven't mentioned yet is Ferndale. I think they are cruising toward the HDNL Little Five championship once again and will grab the number one seed in the playoffs.
So now we're left with two at large births. This is where the playoffs get a little crazy. Sometimes, teams that would have garnered a birth don't show up and the spot goes to a less deserving team. There are a few decisions made during the meeting that are more subjective that objective (such as comparing schedules and leagues). But, we'll discuss all of that once we know what the seeds are.
Right now, I think the two teams that are leading candidates for the two at-large births are Fort Bragg and Dougherty Valley. There might be a lot of talk about St. Helena, Cloverdale, and Kelseyville -- and one of them might squeak in. But don't forget that Berean Christian crushed Kelseyville 43-7; Kelseyville beat both St. Helena and Cloverdale; and Dougherty Valley beat Berean Christian. Now, I'm not in favor of getting too far away from a head-to-head match-up, but this is the kind of subjective discussion that will likely flare up were someone to challenge Dougherty Valley's spot. Also, I'm not even sure Dougherty Valley will even apply for a playoff spot. They are a new school and next year will likely be Division I or II. But right now, If I had to pick the four at-large teams, it would be St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Justin Siena, Fort Bragg, and Dougherty Valley.
Do any of you have another team in mind? Let me know!
St. Patrick-St. Vincent won't get an automatic bid after losing to new Bay Shore foe Enicinal 48-6, but they do play in a tough league with some Division III schools and if they can win out from here, they will likely get a top four seed.
The same goes for Justin Siena, who also plays in a tough league with both Division II and Division III schools. If they win out and finish with a 6-4 record, they too, will likely get a top four seed.
That leaves two more league champs out of the NCL I South and the Bay League, then two at-large births for the playoffs this year. Of course, one team I haven't mentioned yet is Ferndale. I think they are cruising toward the HDNL Little Five championship once again and will grab the number one seed in the playoffs.
So now we're left with two at large births. This is where the playoffs get a little crazy. Sometimes, teams that would have garnered a birth don't show up and the spot goes to a less deserving team. There are a few decisions made during the meeting that are more subjective that objective (such as comparing schedules and leagues). But, we'll discuss all of that once we know what the seeds are.
Right now, I think the two teams that are leading candidates for the two at-large births are Fort Bragg and Dougherty Valley. There might be a lot of talk about St. Helena, Cloverdale, and Kelseyville -- and one of them might squeak in. But don't forget that Berean Christian crushed Kelseyville 43-7; Kelseyville beat both St. Helena and Cloverdale; and Dougherty Valley beat Berean Christian. Now, I'm not in favor of getting too far away from a head-to-head match-up, but this is the kind of subjective discussion that will likely flare up were someone to challenge Dougherty Valley's spot. Also, I'm not even sure Dougherty Valley will even apply for a playoff spot. They are a new school and next year will likely be Division I or II. But right now, If I had to pick the four at-large teams, it would be St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Justin Siena, Fort Bragg, and Dougherty Valley.
Do any of you have another team in mind? Let me know!
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Other Saturday Scores...
Kelseyville 33, Lower Lake 14
Upper Lake 35, Willits 8 (score correction)
St. Elizabeth 18, Harker 8
Upper Lake 35, Willits 8 (score correction)
St. Elizabeth 18, Harker 8
Middletown- Fort Bragg
In case you didn't read the last comment:
Highlights of the Ft. Bragg - Middletown game can be seen at
http://www.record-bee.com/home
Check the Media Center, Record-Bee Video Online
Highlights of the Ft. Bragg - Middletown game can be seen at
http://www.record-bee.com/home
Check the Media Center, Record-Bee Video Online
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Tonights Games
As it turns out, the Clear Lake St. Vincents game ended up being the biggest and closest of the night. I'm still expecting two more scores tonight -- Lower Lake at Kelseyville and Upper Lake at Willits. We'll probably get those scores tomorrow.
Happy Halloween everyone!
Happy Halloween everyone!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)