Well, I think we can safely say that 7 of 8 playoff teams are set.
Ferndale is in, Middletown clinched the NCL I North; Salesian clinched the Bay League; St. Patrick-St. Vincents will get a spot; Justin Siena is in, Fort Bragg should make it; and Dougherty Valley will get a spot. Clear Lake has to win their game with Upper Lake today to clinch a spot.
So we know the teams. The question is, what seed will they get? I think Ferndale is definitely the number one seed. But seeds two through eight are a mystery. How much weight will the seeding committee give an 8-2 or 7-3 St. Patrick-St. Vincent? Where will a 6-4 or 5-5 Justin Siena go? Both of those teams play in a league stocked with mostly Division III schools, so their strength of schedule is much stronger than other schools in Division IV. But does that mean they are truly better than a 9-1 Middletown or a 7-2 Salesian? It's hard to say. There is quite a bit of subjective reasoning that takes place during the seeding meeting. I know they try to make it as fair and as objective as they can, and they do have other concerns -- such as travel distance. But at the end of the day, they assign a spot to each team that most of us will gripe and grumble about. I suppose their is no winning if you are a member of the seeding committee.
I'll post scores from today's Division IV games as soon as I get them. If you get a score, post it as a comment here. Also, be sure to read comments. Sometimes people post more information about a game.
16 comments:
How do you think Dougherty Valleys combined opponents record of 18 wins and 61 losses (.228 winning %) will effect their seeding in the playoffs?
probably as much as playing a bunch of div 4 teams that are not very good but have 3-7 or 4-6 records because they play each other so someone has to win. you cant base it on winning %. would a team like DIV. 2 Richmond who is 1-8 beat a CSD, Hoopa or Willits? or how about an American team 0-8 (Div 1 with 2,000 kids) would they beat upper lake, lower lake, south fork, the list goes on....... what's harder, playing Div 1-2-3 teams or playing Div 4 & 5 teams?
I think that's why there is so much subjectivity in the seeding process. But I do agree that Dougherty Valley has played mostly Division I,II, and III teams (6 games). But Dougherty Valley also played 3 Division IV teams and from that we can garner some information. Dougherty Valley beat Berean Christian 30-27, a fairly close game. Berean Christian probably won't make the playoffs. They also beat Harker 30-16 and John Swett 20-13. John Swett is 2-7 and lost to St. Patric St. Vincent 42-7.
What does all that mean? I'm not sure. But I do think it will mean a low seeding for Dougherty Valley. I think you will see them in the 6-8 slot, but stranger things have happened.
I do not have a dog in this fight, but I love high school football.
You asked…..
“would a team like DIV. 2 Richmond who is 1-8 beat a CSD, Hoopa or Willits?”
YES
“how about an American team 0-8 (Div 1 with 2,000 kids) would they beat upper lake, lower lake, south fork?”
Division III - Lower Lake: YES
Division IV - Upper Lake: NOT SURE
Division V - South Fork: NO
Upper Lake and South fork are tough small school teams.
Remember South Fork beat Burton 28 to 6…… and Dougherty Valley lost to Burton 9 to 20.
I am sure Dougherty Valley is a good team as well, but according to calpreps.com they currently have the THIRD WORST opponents W/L record in the ENTIRE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.
Before we bring Calpreps into this, and strength of schedule et al; keep this in mind: Ferndale is currently rated at 22.3. on Calpreps. Putting that in perspective, that would make Ferndale league champs in the ACCAL in front of 8-1 Berkeley (20.9), Close to 1st place in the SCAL Casa Grande (22.8), Close to first place in the DFAL Miramonte and Campolindo (23.1, 22.7), 2nd place ahead of Marin Catholic in the MCAL, the eqivalent of Amador Valley in the EBAL, 1st place, Ahead of James Logan and Washington High School in the MVAL, 2nd place behind San Leandro in the HAAL (but ahead of Bishop O'Dowd). So my comment would be... Really? Really?... No, Really? As far as I'm concerned you can take Calpreps and toss it out the window ESPECIALLY when trying to compare smaller schools to larger schools... It really is apples and oranges
I only brought calpreps into this becuase they keep track of each teams Opponents W/L record. I am not going for some fancy ratings or strength of schedule formula... just wins and losses. Dougherty Valley is a good team and I think they will do well in the playoffs. They also will not have to worry about having the THIRD WORST opponents W/L record in the ENTIRE STATE OF CALIFORNIA once they join a leauge next season.
With Dougherty Valley being a freelance team they have to find games where they can find them. I believe the responsibiliy of the coaches and players is to prepare the team and themselves to play whatever opponent they come up against. In reading the previous blogs the Dougherty Valley team prepared themselves to play against three div 4 teams in which they beat all three and were 4-2 vs their div 1,2 and 3 opponents. Say what you will - but the Dougherty Valley team came up against 9 opponents and beat 7 of them. End of Story.
"Say what you will - but the Dougherty Valley team came up against 9 opponents and beat 7 of them. End of Story."
I only wish the seeding process was this simple.
I do not mean to ruin a good discussion, but did I miss something about why Dougherty Valley is in the Div. IV playoffs?.... I was wondering because their own school web site lists their enrollment at 1004 students.
It really looks like a great school.... Is that a artificial grass field?
"I do not mean to ruin a good discussion, but did I miss something about why Dougherty Valley is in the Div. IV playoffs?.... I was wondering because their own school web site lists their enrollment at 1004 students."
...Because they have NO Senior class, and because NCS goes off of the previous years enrollment. Next year they will be a Division 3 team (with seniors by the way).
So not only did they win 7 games they did it with no seniors at all. Their maxprep roster says 20 juniors and 9 sophomores
Hey A dude and Mr Red Emp, can we get you guys to predict the seedings? Here's mine:
1 Ferndale
2 Justin Siena
3 Middletown
4 St Pat
5 Salesian
6 Fort Bragg
7 Dougherty
8 Clear Lake
I think your guess to the seedings is very close to mine...I would flip Justin with St. Patrick...but that's just me. Don't forget the seeding committee also looks at travel distance and they try not to have league opponents play in the first round.
"...Because they have NO Senior class, and because NCS goes off of the previous years enrollment. Next year they will be a Division 3 team (with seniors by the way)."
Thank you so much.. I knew I missed something important. How many students will they end up with next year with 9-12??
"So not only did they win 7 games they did it with no seniors at all. Their maxprep roster says 20 juniors and 9 sophomores"
DVHS coaches, players, parents and fans should all be proud.. But I am not sure if the seeding process will take the lack of seniors into account.
"Thank you so much.. I knew I missed something important. How many students will they end up with next year with 9-12??"
Apparently 1,300ish and growing. And I agree, the seeding committee will care less if they're 11th and 10th graders. From what I understand from Class A Dude, they'll shuffle some things around to keep the travel down and to keep teams who faced each other in league from playing. Probably something like this:
1 Ferndale
2 Middletown
3 St. Pat
4 Salesian
5 Fort Bragg
6 Dougherty
7 Siena
8 Clear Lake
I would like to see Dougherty Valley a little higher, but I just don't think the seeding committee will give them any higher than #7. The problem is not just who they've beaten, but what those teams have done since their game with Dougherty Valley. I think the seeding committee will look closely at two games, John Swett and Moreau Catholic. Dougherty Valley beat both, but they were close games (20-13 against John Swett and 13-9 against Moreau Catholic). Both of those teams have played pretty poorly throughout the season and Moreau Catholic is 0-9 and has only been competitive against two foes (Dougherty Valley being one). That being said, I think that Dougherty Valley can play up and should not be overlooked by any team in the first round. A team made up of mostly juniors and sophomores can do nothing but grow and get better as the season progresses. It looks to be an exciting playoff.
Someone questioned that Ferndale could not possibly be at the top of some of the larger leagues (Alameda Contra Costa, the MCAL, and the SCL to name a few) even though their rating on Calpreps seems to support this. I agree, because I don't think Ferndale would be competative week to week in such a league. But do I think Ferndale could beat an 8-1 Berkeley? Yes, I do. Berkeley beat Castlemont 26-18, a competitive game. Castlemont beat Salesian 35-14. Heck, Middletown beat Salesian 49-20 -- and I think Ferndale is better than Middletown. On a one game basis, Ferndale can be competitive and beat some of the top teams in the other larger leagues. I think they would have trouble staying competitive week to week because if they lost one starter to injury, they could fall apart. In the HDNL Little Five, one or two starters out for a game doesn't matter as much.
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