Well, the cream seems to be rising to the top. Middletown is the favorite to win the NCL I North and Clear Lake is in position to capture the NCL I South crown. Berean Christian was essentially blown out of the playoffs by Salesian, who now looks like the champ of the Bay League (as long as they can get by St. Elizabeth next weekend). Of course, we can't take anything for granted in the Bay League because the last two years we've seen a three-way tie for first (two of the teams involved were Kings Academy and Sacred Heart Prep -- both are in another section now).
St. Patrick-St. Vincent won't get an automatic bid after losing to new Bay Shore foe Enicinal 48-6, but they do play in a tough league with some Division III schools and if they can win out from here, they will likely get a top four seed.
The same goes for Justin Siena, who also plays in a tough league with both Division II and Division III schools. If they win out and finish with a 6-4 record, they too, will likely get a top four seed.
That leaves two more league champs out of the NCL I South and the Bay League, then two at-large births for the playoffs this year. Of course, one team I haven't mentioned yet is Ferndale. I think they are cruising toward the HDNL Little Five championship once again and will grab the number one seed in the playoffs.
So now we're left with two at large births. This is where the playoffs get a little crazy. Sometimes, teams that would have garnered a birth don't show up and the spot goes to a less deserving team. There are a few decisions made during the meeting that are more subjective that objective (such as comparing schedules and leagues). But, we'll discuss all of that once we know what the seeds are.
Right now, I think the two teams that are leading candidates for the two at-large births are Fort Bragg and Dougherty Valley. There might be a lot of talk about St. Helena, Cloverdale, and Kelseyville -- and one of them might squeak in. But don't forget that Berean Christian crushed Kelseyville 43-7; Kelseyville beat both St. Helena and Cloverdale; and Dougherty Valley beat Berean Christian. Now, I'm not in favor of getting too far away from a head-to-head match-up, but this is the kind of subjective discussion that will likely flare up were someone to challenge Dougherty Valley's spot. Also, I'm not even sure Dougherty Valley will even apply for a playoff spot. They are a new school and next year will likely be Division I or II. But right now, If I had to pick the four at-large teams, it would be St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Justin Siena, Fort Bragg, and Dougherty Valley.
Do any of you have another team in mind? Let me know!
1 comment:
I think your pretty spot on man. I do belive Dougherty will end up making it through. If they keep the same divisions, Dougherty would move to division 3. They only have around 1000 students.
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