End of the year...

Well, the "state championships" are over and the talk has now turned to recruiting. Not a lot happens at Division IV, but if anyone hears of a player at this level being recruited, post it here.

Aside from that, I'll do periodic updates until it picks up again next fall.

California State Championships

There is a lot of buzz out there about this year's selection of teams competing for the state championship. Of note is the open game between the "best" teams from north and south. Many feel that De la Salle is the top team, but the selection committee picked Grant from Sacramento instead. The committee said that strength of schedule was the determining factor. That is almost laughable.

One other slight of note is in the small school division. 2-loss Hamilton was chosen as the north representative over undefeated Modoc and one loss St. Vincent. Were it not for the "must win section" criteria, Ferndale would have been considered as well. I think everyone can agree -- especially fans and players from Justin Siena, that Ferndale is the best small school in the north.

Some are also complaining about 2-loss St. Marys from Stockton getting in over undefeated Encinal.

As it ends up, here are the matches for this Friday and Saturday:

Small School: Hamilton v. St. Margaret's

Div. III: Cardinal Newman v. St. Bonaventure

Div. II: St. Mary's v. Cathedral

Div. I: De la Salle v. Centennial

Open: Grant v. Poly

If you think about it, the NCS is represented by two teams and many would argue should have been represented by an additional two teams.


The selection process is like the BCS, only worse. The ballots cast by the 10 member selection committee are secret and are based on inaccurate information and tainted with bias. The south gets to field larger schools for each division than the north, the south hosts the games, everything is tilted for the southern teams. I really love small school football, and though I don't think they deserve to be there, I'll root like heck for Hamilton. I will root for all the teams up north.

I hope this process goes through a serious overhaul next year -- and that they add a Division IV championship. There's little chance Justin Siena, Salesian, Middletown, Fort Bragg, or any other Div. IV team that wins the section can make it to the championship game with the likes of Cardinal Newman out there. Once they have all five divisions set, then we can begin to work on a true state championship...

North Coast Section Div. IV

There doesn't seem to be as much interest in the defense as there was the offense. I think it comes down to the nomination process and the voting. The problem is, most of us only have first person knowledge of our own teams. It's hard to break down how players match up when they play different defenses. That's why a lot of the players we nominated and voted for are on all four teams in the semi-finals: Justin Siena, Salesian, Ferndale, and Middletown. Maybe I should just give everyone the opportunity to introduce us to some of the players they feel made a difference on their team, and to even highlight those players on other teams that made life hell for the teams they played.

I would also like to acknowledge those players that have either garnered Div. I attention, or those who we all feel should.

Number one is Justin Clayton of Justin Siena who is on his way to Washington State. Last year it was Javid best who went to Cal. Most kids from small schools like us don't get offers to BCS schools. That's why I think most of the kids who are overlooked should actively pursue being recruited by non-BCS Div. 1 schools. The WAC, MWC, MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt all desire top players, but often lose out to the BCS conference schools. There are many diamonds in the rough who go to small schools who are overlooked by the larger universities. I say they should actively pursue their dreams because a lot of these smaller conferences don't have the time or money to recruit as actively as BCS conferences. They all, however, have websites where they can input all their data and we can help by contacting these schools ourselves and passing info on. All we need to do is help them get a small spotlight cast their way, and the rest is up to them.

I'll post about the Calif. State Championship games this Sunday after the participants are announced. Please post your comments about the terrific players you've seen this year to this post.

Defense

I'm going to get the defensive players up soon for voting.

Offensive All Division IV Team

MVP:
Ching, Salesian


QB (tie):
Aguayo, Justin Siena
Outen, Middltown


RB (Ching is MVP):
Cimolino, Fort Bragg
Delbiaggio, Ferndale
Tomko, Middletown


WR (tie):
Galusha, Middletown
Woolsey, Salesian
Slade, Ferndale
Reinell, Justin Siena

TE:
Marchini, Salesian


OL:
Raine, Salesian
Clayton, Justin Siena
Sarvinski, Ferndale
House, Fort Bragg
Mornig, Justin Siena


K:
Grubbs, Justin Siena


Honorable Mention:

QB:
Robertson, Ferndale

RB:
Pardini, Justin Siena
Owen, Middletown
Matyshock, Ferndale

WR:
Wheeler, Salesian
Hennig, Upper Lake


TE:
Stainer, Justin Siena


OL:
Slinson, Justin Siena
Harmyk, Middletown
Renteria, Fort Bragg
Mitchell, Fort Bragg
Gonzalez, Salesian


K:
Beckwith, Middletown

Defense

I think I'm going to give it one more day to get in the nominations for Defense...we still need a lot more DBs and so far have only one punter. So the new deadline is Friday at 2:00 pm for defense.

Defense

We need more nominations or defense. We have until 2:00 pm Friday.

Recruiting

After we have picked out All Division IV Team, the next thing we should work on is recruiting. We should keep track as best we can of all the players in Div. IV who get offers from colleges of all sizes. We may also help draw more attention to deserving players who risk being overlooked because they play for a small school.

Defensive Players -- Nominations

Here's what I have so far:

DL (which includes DE):

Clayton, JS
Sarvinski, FN
Mournig, JS
Olivero, SL
Rylance, MT
Garcia, MT
House, FB
Harmyk, MT
Carrington, FB
Dunbar, JS
Tompkins, JS


LB:

Pardini, JS
Delbiaggio, FN
Tomko, MT
Meekins, SPSV
Marchini, SL
O'Neil, SL
Stainer, JS
Essy, BC
Owen, MT
Lowe, FB
Castillo, SL
Davis, MT
Applegate, FB


DB:

Richardson, CL
Walsh, FB
Zagajowski, MT
Tillman, SL
Cybuski, JS
Galusha, MT


P:

Cybuski, JS
Walsh, Fort Bragg

Defensive MVP:

Clayton, JS
Marchini, SL
Tomko, MT
Sarvinski, FN

Coach:

Bob Spain, DV
Chad Nightingale, SL


Please post your nominations as a comment to this post. I am also taking nominations for Defensive MVP and Coach of the Year. You have until Friday, 2:00 pm to get your nominations to me.

We will pick 4 DL, 4 LB, and 4 DB, 1 P, and 1 Coach. I know that adds up to 12 players, but that's what a lot of all league selections do.

Some Stats

QB

Outen, MT: 1,195 yds, 15 TD, 4 int
Gupta, HK: 1419 yds, 9 TD (rushed for 352 yds, 8 TDs)
McKay, FN: 739 yds, 10 TDs, 4 INT (rushed for 305 yds, 8 TDs)
Robertson, FN: 488 yds, 7 TDs, 0 INT (rushed for 82 yds 1 TD) (Does not include Justin Siena game -- 2 additional TDs)

RB

Delbiaggio, FN: 1192 yds, 20 TDs (doesn't include Justin Siena game)
Tomko, MT: 1207 yds, 16 TDs
Owen, MT: 988 yds, 14 TDs
Barnes, UL: 1059 yds, 6 TDs
Ching, SL: 1760 yards 21 TDS (only 7 games at RB)
Cimolino, FB: 2,091 yards 27 TDS

WR

Galusha, MT: 792 yds, 10 TDs
Hennig, UL: 485 yds, 2 TD


If anyone has any other stats, please post them as a comment.

Polls

It wouldn't let me post all of them on the right side, so the OL and Kicker had to be placed in the regular posting section.

Nominations

Nominations for positions on offense are now closed. I'll get the polls up asap. We will continue nominations for offensive MVP until 7:30.

So far, for MVP we have Ching and Pardini.

MVP

Someone had a great suggestion, we should vote on an offensive and defensive MVP. I will give you all until 7:30 to come up with nominees for Offensive MVP (we'll do defense when I post those on Wednesday). If you pick a QB for MVP, that QB will not be considered for all Div. IV -- in other words, if they are the top vote getter for All Division, then the all div. title will go to the second place vote-getter.

All Div. IV Offense

Please look at all the posts below and let me know of any other players we should consider for the All Div. IV team. I will need any updates by 6:00 so I can start to put them on polls. Once I have them on a poll, I can't add another name.

TE & K

TE

Marchini, SL
Stainer, JS
Berry, CD (Cloverdale)
Beckwith, MT



K

Grubbs, JS
Beckwith, MT
Stroemme, FB
Castenada, SL

OL

OL

Raine, SL
Clayton, JS
Sarvinski, FN
Slinsen, JS
Mornig, JS
House, FB
Harmyk, MT
Lopez, MT
Renteria, FB
Mitchell, FB
Paupard, SL
Gonzalez, SL
Perales, SL
Sagastume, SL

WR

WR

Galusha, MT
Slade, FN
Reinell, JS
Wheeler, SL
Woolsey, SL
Hennig, UL


We're a little short of WR -- if anyone can think of another to add...

RB

RB

Ching, SL
Delbioggio, FN
Pardini, JS
Owen, MT
Tomko, MT
Cimolino, FB (Fort Bragg)
Matyshock, FN
Barnes, UL (Upper Lake)

All Division IV QB

I'm going to post position by position here before I put it up on the poll. If anyone notices we are missing a top player, please let me know so I can add them.

QB

Outen, MT
Aguayo, JS
Robertson, FN
McKay, FN
Wallace, SPSV
Richardson, CL
Densberger, SH
Woolsey, SL
Henderson, EM
Gupta, HK


MT=Middletown
JS=Justin Siena
FN=Ferndale
SPSV=St. Patrick-St. Vincent
CL=Clear Lake
SH=St. Helena
SL=Salesian
EM=Emery
HK=Harker

Public Vs. Private Schools

A lot has been written in the comment section regarding private schools and a perceived unfairness. I think any discussion about enrollment and leveling the field for all is a healthy discussion as long as people try to treat each other with respect.

My thoughts:

It doesn't matter at all if a school is public or private, they each play according to the rules set out by CIF, the NCS, and their particular conference or league. I think the only time there should be a question about enrollment and a team's division is when a private school is unisex. Outside of that, the enrollment figures for private and public schools are the same when it comes to alignment in a division. For division IV, it's 400 to 699 students. Period.

Part of the allure of the playoffs is facing up against teams you hadn't seen and don't know that well. And should these games really be cake-walks? Do you want a number one or two seed to always, always reach the championship game? For those of you who don't want any private school in the division IV playoffs, try to imagine what the playoffs would look like. If you are in the NCL I North, your playoffs would look like this: 6 teams from the NCL I, John Swett, and Ferndale. And that's assuming John Swett has a .500 season or better.

I don't know about you, but that sounds boring and not very challenging (aside from having to face Ferndale, of course!). The playoffs are supposed to be difficult. Long gone are the years when an undefeated Laytonville with a pass-happy offense and a number 8 seed landed in places like Lower Lake to be chewed up and spit out by the second and third string. Today, the 8th seed can be dangerous -- and an 8th seed has won the championship before.

Of Justin Siena's 4 Division IV (Class A) section championships, 3 had to go through Ferndale. They beat Ferndale 16-14 and 13-0 in the championship game, and recently beat them 22-15 in this year's semi-final game. One of Ferndale's 11 section titles (since 1975) had to go through Justin Siena, winning that one 28-6. The biggest rout was Ferndale beating Justin Siena, a public school beating a private school. Last year, Ferndale and St. Patrick-St. Vincent had two epic battles. The Bruins won the regular season game 27-21, with Ferndale in scoring position as time ran out, but Ferndale won the section title 6-0 over the same St. Patrick-St. Vincent team.

Those were great games. What about this year? Salesian beat Middletown 22-21 by kicking a field goal with just under 3 minutes left. Salesian's defense kept Middletown's running backs bottled up, but the Mustangs still had a passing game. Middletown had a 21-13 lead when the 4th quarter began. In fact, some people have speculated that if Middletown had thrown the ball more than 16 times, the game might have ended differently.

Justin Siena was losing to Ferndale at halftime 15-14 before finally getting on top in the second half. That game may have ended differently were it not for two great plays by the Brave's punter. Middletown and Ferndale were not blown out. They struggled, yes, but they were both in the game and each could have won.

All in all, I think it was a great season and each team deserved their spot in the playoffs. But, those are just my thoughts.

Division IV Championship

Justin Siena 28, Salesian 14

A great season has come to an end. We'll work on the all Division IV team this weekend and next week. Then we'll take a look at the Division IV players who will, or may, go on to play at the college level.

Halftime

Justin Siena 21, Salesian 14

Tonight's game

The game will be streamed live on KVYN radio beginning with a pre-game segment at 6:45.

Division IV Championship

Justin Siena (8-4) Vs. Salesian (9-2) Tonight at 7:00 pm at Alhambra High School

The big game is finally here. Both the Braves and the Pride faced tough opponents in last week's semi-final game and each scrapped out a win in the fourth quarter. One thing that was common in both games was that each controlled the line of scrimmage. Both teams have quick, mobile quarterbacks who can throw and each has talented running backs. I think the game will be as close and as hard fought as last week's games. Will it come down to another field goal? Or will one team pull away at the last? I give Salesian running back Ching the edge over Justin Siena's Pardini.

My Prediction: Salesian wins 28-21.

All Division IV Nominations

I think from now on, I'll let everyone post their nominations in the comments section and let everyone read them there. On Saturday, I will put the QBs, RBs, WRs, TE, K, and OL on the main board. I'll give everyone until Sunday at 6:00 PM to add any names to either list. By 8:00 PM, I'll have all of them listed in a poll for us to vote on. We will be able to vote for one QB, RB, WR, and TE. You can vote for multiple OL. I will also post what stats we have for each person on the list.

On Tuesday, I'll post the defense: DL, LB, DB, and P. I will fold in defensive ends with defensive linemen. If anyone wants to add a defensive player, they will have until 6:00 PM Wednesday.

On Wednesday at 8:00 PM I will take down the polls for offense and put up the polls for defense. The defensive poll will run through Saturday 8:00 PM. By 10:00 PM, I will post the all Division IV team as we have voted. I encourage everyone to vote as subjectively as they can.

All Division IV Team

We should have all the requests in by Saturday, December 13. Then I will set up a poll for offense then defense. By the 20th, we should have our team. We need a lot more nominations -- especially for defense and the offensive line.

More Nominations

LB
Tyler Owen, Middletown
Eric Tomko, Middletown
Jourdan Delbioggio, Ferndale

OL
Silas Sarvinski, Ferndale

RB
Kyle Matyshock, Ferndale

QB
Kevin McKay, Ferndale

K
Jordan Grubbs, Justin Siena

Nominations

QB
Ryan Richardson, Clear Lake

DB
Ryan Richardson, Clear Lake

Nominations

LB
Brandon Essy, Berean Christian

More Nominations

Note:
We can nominate players from teams in Div. IV that did not make the playoffs, too. Also, we'll go ahead and take nominations for individual offensive linemen, but we may end up just picking one teams entire line.


LB
Mike O'Neil, Salesian
Quinten Stainer, Justin Siena

QB
Daniel Wallace, St. Patrick-St. Vincent

WR
Kevin Reinell, Justin Siena

TE
Nick Marchini, Salesian

OL
Philip Raine, Salesian
Justin Clayton, Justin Siena

DE
Guido Mournig, Justin Siena

DL
Anthony Olivero, Salesian

Punter
Craig Cybuski, Justin Siena

More nominations

DE
Silas Sarvinksi, Ferndale

RB
Jake Cimolino, Fort Bragg

LB

Another Player worth noting:

LB
Mike Meekins, St. Patrick-St. Vincent

All Division IV Team

I am taking your nominations for the all Division IV team. Since we aren't going to be able to get stats fro everyone, I'd say let's just nominate players who have made an impact. I think we can also nominate an entire offensive line.

So far:

QB
Matt Outen, Middletown
Ryan Robertson, Ferndale
Eddie Aguayo, Justin Siena

RB
Matt Ching, Salesian
Jourdon Delbiaggio, Ferndale
Tyler Owen, Middletown
Eric Tomko, Middletown
Daniel Pardini, Justin Siena

WR
Dylan Galusha, Middletown
Jesse Slade, Ferndale

Offensive Line
Justin Siena
Salesian

DL
Justin Clayton, Justin Siena

LB
Daniel Pardini, Justin Siena


That's what we have so far, we should have an all Division IV team by the weekend of the State Championships (December 20). So please nominate any players from Div. IV you deem worthy.

Division IV Championship

The title game will be at Alhambra High School next Friday night at 7:00 pm.

Justin Siena (8-4) vs. Salesian (9-2)

Final Score

Justin Siena 22, Ferndale 15

Wow, that one surprises me. Ferndale uncharacteristically had several penalties. It was a good, close-fought game. Justin put it away late in the 4th.

Last Night's Game

Looking back, it was even better than I had written. I was glad I was there. I know there has been some discussion about private school teams versus public school teams. It's well known that De La Salle recruits players, but they also get a lot of people to move there so their sons will play on a high profile team, inceasing their chances of getting a full ride scholarship. But they are a big school and play under much brighter lights. In Division IV, the schools are too small to really do much of what De La Salle does. Kids go to Justin Siena or Salesian or St. Patrick-St. Vincent because they live in the area and their parents pay for them to go to those schools.

The biggest reason most of those schools in Division IV are so tough is who they regularly play. Justin and St. Pats play in a league that has Division II and III schools, plus they have tough non-league games. It's no coincidence that one of the most successful public school programs, Ferndale, plays bigger schools and other tough small schools outside of their own league. To me, that's the secret. You build your program by facing tough opponents each year, opponents that are supposed to beat you.

Yes, Salesian beat Middletown last night. But it was a great game and both teams deserved to be there.

Final Score

Salesian 22, Middeltown 21

The game was an excellent one. It was tied 7-7 at the half, and Middletown was ahead 21-13 entering the 4th quarter. But Salesian scored with about 9 minutes left and Middletown turned the ball over on downs their next possession. Salesian then marched down to the 13 yard line with about 3 minutes left. A holding penalty put them back to the 23. They didn't gain much and and 4th down they kicked a field goal to take the lead. Middletown turned the ball over on downs.

Point of full disclosure, I was rooting for Middletown ('83 alumni), but it was a great game to watch. Salesian has a terrific running back and their quarterbck has a strong arm. But it was their line, offense and defense, that carried the day. Their line dominated Middletown's.

Tomorrow's big game is Justin Siena at Ferndale, then we'll know who is matched up in the championship game.

Friday night

I will be at the Middletown-Salesian game tonight. I'll post the score as soon as I get back.

Semi-Finals

The big weekend is fast approaching. I can't wait. I'll be at the Middletown-Salesian game and will follow the Justin Siena-Ferndale game via online radio.

Salesian (8-2) at Middletown (10-1) Friday night

This is a rematch of a game early in the season that Middletown won 49-20. I don't think we'll see a 29 point spread Friday night. Salesian has improved greatly and their running game has been churning out the yards the past few weeks. Middletown's defense will be put to the test, but I think they have enough to slow the charge from the Chieftains. I still think the game will be close.

Prediction: Middletown wins 24-21.


Justin Siena (7-4) at Ferndale (11-0) Saturday afternoon

This, too, looks like it will be a great game. I think this one could be every bit as good as the regular season match-up between Ferndale and St. Patrick-St. Vincent last year, but with a different outcome. Justin, just like St. Pats, runs the veer offense and has a mobile quarterback. Ferndale has seen this before. I think Ferndale will control the tempo of the game, holding a tight lead late in the game, forcing Justin to take chances. If those chances succeed, then they might squeak out a win, but if they fail, the score might end up more lopsided.

Prediction: Ferndale wins 35-21.

Cal-Hi State Rankings

These are courtesy of one of our followers here:

Small School Division

North:

1. Ferndale 11-0
2. Hamilton 9-2
3. Modoc 11-0
4. St. Vincent 9-1
5. Portola 10-1

South:

1. St. Margarets 11-0
2. Parker 9-1
3. Aquinas 10-1
4. Central Valley Christian 8-2
5. Christian 9-1

State Championships

I've been looking at how the CIF breaks down the state championships and it seems a tad unfair. Everything appears to favor the Southern teams. First, the breakdown of all the divisions:

Division I: North is 1701 students + South is 2400+

Division II: North is 1001-1700 South is 1101-2399

Division III: North is 401-1000 South is 501-1110

Small: North is 400 or less South is 500 or less

Why is there a discrepancy? Shouldn't enrollment figures for each division be equal for north and south?

And the biggie: All the championship games are played down south. I know it has to do with the sponsor, but I think they can find a way to play up north every other year, or make all the games in the middle of the state.

Right now, Ferndale is the leading small school for the north according to Calpreps.com. Their current southern opponent would be Parker if the game would be played today. Parker, by the way, has an enrollment of 496 students, which would make them a Division III school were they playing up north.

Big Games

We have only three games left, and possibly a fourth, in the NCS Division IV. There would be a fourth game if Ferndale wins the section championship and they are the top ranked small school in the north. This year, the faux state championship has included a small school division (for schools with 400 or less students). Ferndale is currently the number one small school in the north and if they win, beating larger, ranked schools, they will only cement their number one ranking.

By the way, I call it a faux state championship because it's really a close cousin to the BCS in college. Teams from the north and south are "picked" to play the championship game. How this process really works, I don't know. But I do know that, when compared to other state championships, California lags far behind. Texas, which is a big state, has a statewide championship for each division. I think they serve as the model for what we should aspire to do here.

But, in the meantime, this is what we have. Ferndale is the one school in our Division even being considered for the honor of playing in a state championship -- so if they do make it, I'm sure everyone will root them on.

In our section, this will all be settled on the football field. I will preview both games on Turkey Day. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving!

Final Four

Well, our Final Four is set. (1) Ferndale hosts (4) Justin Siena next Saturday; and (2) Middletown hosts (3) Salesian Friday night.

I will be at the Salesian-Middletown game, and the Justin Siena-Ferndale game will be streamed over the internet at KVYN.com and KWPT.com. You have your choice of radio stations. Both are very easy to listen to and have great play-by-play and color people.

Final -- got it!

Salesian 42, Fort Bragg 7

Salesian-Fort Bragg

I thought I heard a couple of different scores from the updates they were giving on the radio for the Ferndale game. One was 35-7 in the fourth, then I heard 45-7 in the fourth. Does anyone know what the final score was?

Final

Ferndale 56, Dougherty Valley 8

4th Qtr Score

Salesian 45, Fort Bragg 7

Ferndale

Ferndale 49, Dougherty Valley 0 (end of 3rd Qtr)

Halftime 2

Salesian 14, Fort Bragg 0

Halftime

Ferndale 42, Dougherty Valley 0

Games in Progress II

Salesian 7, Flort Bragg 0 (still in the 1st Qtr)

Game in Progress

Ferndale 21, Dougherty Valley 0 (end of 1st Qtr)

Two Teams in the Final Four

Well, the 2 seed and the 4 seed have advanced to the next round. The poll seems to indicate that there might be an upset tomorrow. I'm not so sure, but it will be an interesting day.

The Ferndale game will be on the web via the radio station KWPT.com. Just go to the website, scroll down to the football character running with a football, and click on whichever viewing platform your computer has (mine uses Windows Media Player). The radio will stream right through. I also heard on the game at Justin Siena that they will broadcast the game live from either Ferndale or at home against Dougherty Valley.

I will follow the Ferndale game online and will keep checking for scores from the Salesian-Fort Bragg game. I hope all of you who attended a game tonight had a great time -- even if your team didn't win.

Final Score II

Justin Siena 34, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 19

Final Score (corrected)

Middletown 34, Clear Lake 7

Playoff Games

There are two games Friday night:

St. Patrick-St. Vincent at Justin Siena (7:00 pm)

Clear Lake at Middletown (7:00 pm)


And two games Saturday afternoon:

Fort Bragg at Salesian (1:00 pm)

Dougherty Valley at Ferndale (1:00 pm)



Because of work, I can't make any games this weekend, but I will be at one game next weekend.

Fort Bragg (8-2) at Salesian (7-2)

Salesian has scrapped together a pretty good season. They only have two losses, a 49-20 defeat at Middletown, and a 34-15 loss at Castlemont (Div. II). I think they are a lot better than the team that lost to Middletown early in the season, but so are a lot of the other teams in the playoffs. Fort Bragg also has two losses, a 20-8 set back against Middletown, and a 12-7 hard-fought loss to St. Vincent. So how do they match-up? Both teams have strong running games, with perhaps the edge to Salesian. Fort Bragg gets the edge with their passing game. The defenses are good, with both having a soft spot for power running games and the passing game, hence their losses to Middletown. This looks to be a close, close game. This one should be every bit as good to watch as the St. Patrick-St. Vincent-Justin Siena game. In the playoffs, home field gives a team a tiny advantage. I think it's one Salesian exploits by virtue of an extra-point.

Prediction: Salesian wins 21-20.

Playoff Games on the Radio

I believe the Clear Lake-Middletown game will be on KNTI (99.5), but they do not have a webcast. However, I read on another comment at the Contra Costa Times that the Dougherty Valley-Ferndale game will be webcast on: KWPT.com.

Justin Siena usually has their home games webcast on KVYN, but they haven't updated their broadcast schedule to reflect the playoff game yet.

Clear Lake (6-3-1) at Middletown (9-1)

This is a repeat of a game played on October 3rd. Middletown won 34-0. I was at that game. It rained and rained and rained. The field was muddy, the ball was slick. Two of Middletown's touchdowns came through the air, but the running game was what powered their win. The Mustangs dominated both sides of the line and the Cardinals just didn't seem to have any answers.

But that was still early in the season. I think Clear Lake's passing game has improved since then. The weather was also a factor that night; it might not be much of a factor this Friday. I would not count Clear Lake out just yet. They won the NCL I South by virtue of defeating St. Vincent, the only team to beat Middletown this year. I think this game will be a little closer than some might think. There are three factors that come into play for this game: 1. Middletown is the better team; 2. Middletown is the home team; 3. Clear Lake entered post season play after a tough loss to St. Helena. It's all about who is playing well now.

My Prediction: Middletown wins 35-14.

St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3) at Justin Siena (6-4)

I think this game, like all 4 vs. 5 seed games, should be a great one. Both teams run the veer offense, both have won NCS Section titles, and both play in leagues with larger schools. That said, the MCAL is a tad tougher than the BSAL, which is probably why Justin Siena got the 4 seed. I think if you were going to see one Division IV playoff game, it would be this one. Right now, it appears that Justin Siena is playing better. But the Bruins are a strong team that has the tools to beat the Braves.

My take? I think Justin Siena is the stronger team and will eventually prevail. I do think this game will be a squeaker until late in the 4th Quarter.

Prediction: Justin Siena wins 38-28.

What do you think?

Ferndale Statistics

I was emailed some great season stats from Ferndale. Chew on these a bit. I'll post some stats for Middletown and Clear Lake later in the week. If any of you have stats from other Div. IV playoff teams, post them as a comment or email them to me (my email address is in my profile).

Ferndale Statistics

Passing:

McKay 49/78 739 Yds 10 TD 4 INT (174.33 QB Rating)
Robertson 12/20 251 Yds 4 TD 0 INT
Griggs 1/4 43 Yds 1 INT

Rushing:

Del Biaggio 136 Att. 1163 Yds (8.5 avg.) 19 TD
Matyshock 63 Att. 514 Yds (8.2 avg.) 15 TD
Coppini 5 Att. 416 Yds (9.2 avg.) 4 TD
McKay 54 Att. 305 Yds (5.6 avg.) 8 TD
Griggs 11 Att. 88 Yds (8.0 avg.)
Robertson 15 Att. 82 Yds (5.5 avg.) 1 TD
Gurnee 10 Att. 43 Yds (4.3 avg.)

Receiving:

Slade 16 catches 364 Yds (22.8 avg.) 6 TD
Matyshock 12 catches 90 Yds (7.5 avg.) 2 TD
Griggs 11 catches 187 Yds (17.0 avg.) 2 TD
Del Biaggio 3 catches 94 Yds (31.3 avg.) 2 TD
Jones 6 catches 82 Yds (13.7 avg.) 1 TD
Coppini 4 catches 37 Yds (9.2 avg.)
Ambrosini 3 catches 75 Yds (25 avg.)
Gurnee 2 catches 30 Yds (15.0 avg.)

Dougherty Valley (7-2) at Ferndale (10-0)

Dougherty Valley will make the long trip to Ferndale for Saturday's 1:00 game. Dougherty Valley has played Division I, II, III, and IV teams this season and has amassed an impressive 7-2 record. Though Ferndale plays in a league with some Division V schools, they routinely play non league games with Division III schools and schools with great football traditions. Two of the Division III schools Ferndale defeated this year, on their way to a 10-0 record, are in the Division III playoffs.

Dougherty Valley has had a great season with a very young team --their varsity squad is made up of 20 juniors and 9 sophomores with no seniors. This playoff game presents them with a valuable experience that will only make them better as they enter Diablo Foothill play next year as a Division III school. One thing they will learn rather quickly is just how good Ferndale is. There is a reason they are the number one seed and a reason no one has beaten them. Heck, the tightest game they have played this year was a 31-14 defeat of East Nicholas (a Northern Section playoff team). If Dougherty Valley is to have any chance at all, they have to keep the ball out of the Ferndale offense's hands -- long drives that consume time. Of course, that means staying ahead of a fast, bruising defense, which few have been able to crack this year. Perhaps the only real chance Dougherty Valley has is if an epidemic of the flu hits the Ferndale team.

It may be a good game for a quarter, but by then each team will have seen where and how they match up and Ferndale will take the game over. Do miracles happen? In sports, I believe they do. And that's exactly what Dougherty Valley will need.

Prediction: Ferndale wins 35-14.

The Big Games

I will preview all of the Division IV playoff games this week. Later today, I will preview the Ferndale-Dougherty Valley game; Tuesday I will preview the Justin Siena-St. Patrick-St. Vincent match-up; Wednesday I will preview the Middletown-Clear Lake game; and Thursday I will preview the Salesian-Fort Bragg game.


I may even spend a little time discussing the Division V playoffs sometime this week.

Second Thought...

It does look like the seeding committee rewarded winning your league. That may be why Salesian got a 3 seed and why Clear Lake was given the 7 seed instead of the 8 seed.

So in some ways, perhaps it does make some sense.

Initial Thoughts...

Looking at the seedings, I think Ferndale got the shaft a little bit. Let's assume that Ferndale and Middletown make it to the second round. Ferndale will have to face the winner of the St.Patrick-St. Vincent - Justin Siena game. Middletown would face the winner of the Salesian-Fort Bragg game. I think Justin Siena and St. Patrick-St. Vincent are better than both Fort Bragg and Salesian. Middletown beat Salesian in week one 49-20 and Fort Bragg 22-8. So I See a tougher road for Ferndale than for Middletown. Now, of course I think Ferndale can get by both, but at this level, each team is good enough to beat another on a given day and the better a team is, the more days they have to beat you.

NCS Division IV Seedings

1. Ferndale (10-0)

2. Middletown (9-1)

3. Salesian (7-2)

4. Justin Siena (6-4)

5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3)

6. Fort Bragg (8-2)

7. Clear Lake (6-3-1)

8. Dougherty Valley (7-2)

Corrected Time of Meeting

The seeding meeting will take place at 9:00 am, so we might know sometime Sunday afternoon.

Seedings

Tomorrow is the big day...I'll post the seedings as soon as they come out. I think the meeting is at 1:00 pm. The seedings are usually posted on the NCS site by 6:00 pm.

Final Score and our Regular Season is Over

Justin Siena 42, Tamalpias 7

This Must Have Been a Great Game

St. Mary's 29, Kennedy 28

Final Score 2

Ferndale 54, McKinleyville, 14

Final Score

Salesian 42, Harker 17

Pre-Seedings Seeding

After a couple of last night's games -- namely Clear Lake's loss and St. Patrick-St. Vincent's loss, I have reworked my seeding prediction (assuming Justin Siena and Ferndale win today).

1. Ferndale (10-0)

2. Middletown (9-1)

3. Justin Siena (6-4)

4. Salesian (8-2)

5. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-3)

6. Fort Bragg (8-2)

7. Dougherty Valley (7-2)

8. Clear Lake (6-3-1)


All four top seeds would host games and each team would open against a team they had not played in the regular season.

I did hear that both Cloverdale and St. Helena would apply for an at-large birth. I would assume St. Mary's would as well if they win today. All three of those teams would be 5-5. I think Berean Christian will apply as well. Their record is 7-3. Dougherty Valley should be a sure thing in the playoffs, but you never know what happens in the meeting -- or if all the team reps show up.

If you think you know what the seedings will be, post it as a comment here.

Tomorrow's Games

That's all the games from tonight. Tomorrow will be the last few games of the regular season for 2008.

Final Scores

Middletown 62, Lower Lake 8

St. Vincent 51, Kelseyville 6

Friday Night

The only scores I'm waiting on is the final from Middletown-Lower Lake (of course, the outcome is not in doubt -- it was 41-8 at halftime) and the St. Vincent-Kelseyville game...That one may be pretty interesting.

Another Score...

Fort Bragg 38, Willits 0

Another Big Game...

St. Helena 7, Clear Lake 0


St. Helena had a goal line stand at the end.

So Much for the Upset Special

Cloverdale 30, Upper Lake 7

Final Score

A little shake up...

Piedmont 34, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 27

Final

Berean Christian 55, CSD 12

Updates

Berean Christian 48, CSD 12 (3rd Qtr)

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 27, Piedmont 20 (3rd Qtr)

Halftime Score...

Middletown 41, Lower Lake 8

One Final...and some in progress...

Final:

John Swett 36, Albany 34 (in OT)

In Progress:

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 21, Piedmont 7 (Half)

Berean Christian 41, CSD 6 (Half)

Middletown 28, Lower Lake 0 (1st Qtr)

Games this Weekend

There are four games on Saturday this weekend:

Salesian at Harker
St. Mary's at Kennedy
McKinleyville at Ferndale
Justin Siena at Tamalpias


All the rest are on Friday night. I'll update scores as soon as I get them. If you come back from a game and the score isn't posted, please post that score here.

Also, I got a nice email from someone in Ferndale. They shared their stats for the season. I'll post those sometime tonight as well.

Friday Night

There are a number of games with playoff seeding implications and a number of games that I think will be close, interesting games to follow.

The games that may affect the seedings:

Clear Lake at St. Helena -- I think Clear Lake has to win to secure a spot higher than 8. If they lose, especially if they lose big, Dougherty Valley might edge them out.

St. Patrick-St. Vincent at Piedmont -- The Bruins must win to keep their hopes for a 2 or 3 seed alive. If they lose, they might just slip to the 4 seed.

Justin Siena at Tamalpias -- The Braves are in the playoffs, even at 5-5, but if they win and finish the regular season at 6-4, they may squeak into the 4 seed. If St. Patrick-St. Vincents loses and Justin Siena wins, the Braves just might slip into the 3 seed.

McKinleyville at Ferndale -- Ferndale should win this game, but don't completely count out McKinelyville. This is the last game for each and McKinleyville is looking to secure a spot in the Division III playoffs (perhaps their last year in Division III). If pigs begin flying, Hummers get 40 mpg, and Ferndale loses, the seedings really get jumbled up. I think there would be a good possibility that three teams that are not league champs could be in the top four seeds and two of them may have to travel in the first round.



Some interesting games:

Upper Lake at Cloverdale -- This one looks like it will be a great game. If the score is close, look for Upper Lake to have a chance.

St. Mary's at Kennedy -- This is the clash of 4-5 teams. St. Mary's is a bit of an enigma. I think they are better than a couple of teams that might make the playoffs, and if they can even their record to 5-5, there might be a slight glimmer of hope for a seed. But, one of their wins was a forfeit (in a game where they actually lost). So I'm not sure that glimmer will be bright enough, but it should be an interesting game to follow.

This Weekend

As always, I will post scores during games as they are underway and will post final scores as I get them on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. Also, I will post the playoff seedings as soon as the NCS sets them on Sunday. They usually have them up by 6:00 PM.

Final Preview NCL I

St. Vincent (8-1) at Kelseyville (4-4)

If I were previewing this game six weeks ago, I would have picked St. Vincent in a slaughter -- especially after K-ville got blown out by both Fort Bragg and Middletown. But something has happened to St. Vincent, especially on the road. While they were able to defeat the top two teams in all of the NCL I at home, their road record has been fragile -- breaking once. Their road games: 14-2 win over 0-9 Willits; 8-7 loss to 6-2-1 Clear Lake; and a 7-3 win over 4-5 St. Helena. How will they do on the road against 4-4-1 Kelseyville? I think a pattern has emerged.
Prediction: St. Vincent wins 14-13.


Middletown (8-1) at Lower Lake (1-8)

This should be an easy win for Middletown. I don't see a record point deluge because Middletown does take steps to keep from scoring too much (taking a knee to let time run out inside an opponent's five yard line at halftime in two games this season). The Middletown starters won't play more than a quarter and a half.
Prediction: Middletown wins 49-7.


Fort Bragg (7-2) at Willits (0-9)

Like the game above, this should be an easy one for Fort Bragg. But this is in Willits, where strange things have been known to happen. But I think the strangest thing would be if Willits finds the endzone.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 42-0.


Upper Lake (4-5) at Cloverdale (4-5)

This will probably be a great game to watch. Upper Lake has played tough against St. Helena and Clear Lake. It's the last game and both teams will use the kitchen sink. I think this will be my upset special.
Prediction: Upper Lake wins 27-20.


Clear Lake (6-2-1) at St. Helena (4-5)

Clear Lake has already secured their spot in the playoffs, but they can't overlook St. Helena. I see Clear Lake hovering around the 7 or 8 seed. If they lose or if the game is tight, I think they are a lock for the 8th seed. If they win and win big, 7 might be their reward. And what kind of reward would that be? Well, they wouldn't have to travel to Ferndale the following week!
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 28-21.

Final Regular Season Preview (Bay League, Bay Shore, MCAL, and HDNL Little Five

Bay League


Berean Christian (6-3) at CSD (2-7)

There isn't much Berean Christian can do to get into the playoffs. Two of their three losses did them in (to Salesian and to Dougherty Valley). I think they'll take it out on CSD.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 43-7.


Harker (4-4) at Salesian (6-2)

On paper, this should be an easy victory for Salesian. But Harker can give a fight, especially if Salesian is caught looking ahead to the playoffs. But I think they'll be focused on the task at hand because this game has some seeding implications.
Prediction: Salesian wins 46-6.



Bay Shore

John Swett (2-7) at Albany (3-6)

John Swett would love to close out a horrible season with an upset victory. I just don't see it.
Prediction: Albany wins 32-14.


St. Mary's (4-5) at Kennedy (4-5)

Each team is fighting to finish the season with an even record. But only one, St. Mary's, harbors any hope for a playoff birth. Though their post-season prospects are very, very slim, it still gives them enough mana to scrap a little harder.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 27-20.


St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-2) at Piedmont (7-2)

For each, this is a must win. St. Patrick-St. Vincent can drop a seed or two in the Division IV playoffs if they lose, and the same goes for Piedmont in the Division III playoffs. Piedmont plays that whacky A-11 offense where just about everybody on offense can be a potential ball carrier, but how will they play against the Bruins? If it is a high scoring game, I give the slight edge to Piedmont. If less than 40 total points are scored, I give the edge to the Bruins. I think I see a lot of points.
Prediction: Piedmont wins 42-35.



MCAL

Justin Siena (5-4) at Tamalpias (5-4)

For Justin Siena, the playoffs began last week. In order to continue the sweep, and to capture a potential top four seed, they must defeat Tamalpias. If they lose, they likely drop into the lower half of the bracket.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 35-13.



HDNL Little Five

McKinleyville (7-2) at Ferndale (9-0)

Though Ferndale is heavily favored to win (they beat McKinleyville 33-6 earlier in the year), they cannot ignore the importance of this game. It's really the HDNL Little Five championship. If Ferndale loses, they will fall from the number one seed. I see a tight game.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 14-6.

Note on the Rankings

As I wrote, I do see Justin Siena jumping over Fort Bragg to claim the 4th spot. I also see Dougherty valley jumping over Clear Lake (unless Clear Lake crushes St. Helena). If Clear Lake struggles at all next Friday night, look for Dougherty Valley to be seeded #7. I think the seeding committee would prefer this because it would eliminate at least one potential match-up where a top four team would have to travel. Remember, even if you are seeded in the top four, if you are not the champion of your league and your opponent is, you have to travel. League champs host the first game. I think they take this into account when they do the seedings. Even though Clear Lake would be a league champ, they would still travel to Ferndale because Ferndale would also be a league champ (well, if they win this weekend). The other league champ that is likely to be seeded in the bottom half of the bracket is Salesian. They may get to host a first round game, depending on who they are pitted against. Some may be wondering, "then why try for a top seed if you don't get to host a game?" Well, the answer is simple. The rule about being a league champ only applies to the first round game. If you make it to the second round and your are seeded higher, you get to host a second round game.

Division IV Rankings

1. Ferndale (9-0) – Beat St. Bernhard’s 47-12.
2. Middletown (8-1) – Clinched NCL I North by crushing Kelseyville 56-0.
3. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (7-2) – Plays Piedmont for 2^nd place in the Bay Shore League.
4. Fort Bragg (7-2) – Beat Cloverdale 28-7.
5. Justin Siena (5-4) – Dominated Terra Linda 47-6.
6. Salesian (6-2) – Clinched Bay League title with 35-0 defeat of St. Elizabeth.
7. Clear Lake (6-2-1) – Squeaked by Upper Lake 20-14.
8. Dougherty Valley (7-2) – Beat 0-9 American 24-17.

I had to reboot the rankings...Looking at each team that is likely to be in the playoffs and positioning them according to how good they are playing right now. I believe is Justin Siena can get by Tamalpias, they will skip over Fort Bragg and secure #4 for the playoffs.

Dougherty Valley

There has been some talk in the comments section regarding Dougherty Valley and I think it has more to do with the seeding process as a whole as opposed to one team in particular. Again, the seeding process can be very subjective, but there's no way to make the process 100% objective. At the meeting itself, there is a whole lot of politicking going on.

When the committee doesn't have the luxury of head-to-head games to decide if team A is seeded ahead of team B, they instead look at their games with common opponents. This can be misleading. Middletown and Fort Bragg both lost to St. Vincent early in the season (21-14 and 12-7 respectively). Middletown and Fort Bragg both beat Clear Lake by a fairly comfortable margin (35-0 and 28-6), yet Clear Lake beat St. Vincent 8-7. This is common in high school football, especially small school football. One or two players out for a game can change the whole dynamic.

If the seeding committee doesn't have a common opponent to judge team A and B, then they look to common opponents of common opponents. This is where the rubber leaves the road. Of course, this is also where we get into strength of schedule. Some Division IV schools play in leagues that are stocked with Division III and II schools, such as Bay Shore and Marin County, and Dougherty Valley, a freelance school, played six such opponents (including two Division I schools). Those schools, of course, have a tougher schedule, but one thing that should be very clear is that the size of the school doesn't necessarily relate to how good a team is. I don't think that anyone doubts that Ferndale is the number one Division IV school, even though they are really a Division V school. And, on the other side, I think that Division I American, a team Dougherty Valley just beat 24-17, would finish near the bottom of every league with Division IV teams.

My one gripe in all of this is the lack of great preseason games. Some Div. IV leagues just don't have enough non-league games. The NCL I teams only get one true non-league game. Each team from the NCL I North must play each team from the NCL I South and visa-versa. Ferndale only gets two non-league games. I think if you want to be competitive and you have true playoff hopes, you should either schedule games with top teams in the other leagues, or schedule games with Division II or III teams in the section.

But this year, there has been little head-to-head between potential playoff teams (I think Middletown's 49-20 win over Salesian is the only one) -- not to mention all the potential playoff teams in the NCL I.

So the results of this year's seeding process is likely to make us scratch our heads once more. But we will still pull and root for the top teams in Division IV as the final curtain for 2008 draws to a close.

Final Score for the Weekend

Ferndale 47, St. Bernard 12

Saturday Score

Berean Christian 55, Emory 0

Other Saturday Games

I'm still trying to find the score for the Ferndale-St. Bernard game and the Berean Christian-Emory game. If you know the score, post it here as a comment and I'll get it up on the main board.

Saturday Score

Clear Lake 20, Upper Lake 14

Read the comment to the post for the Harker-CSD post for info on this game.

Friday Night

Well, I think we can safely say that 7 of 8 playoff teams are set.

Ferndale is in, Middletown clinched the NCL I North; Salesian clinched the Bay League; St. Patrick-St. Vincents will get a spot; Justin Siena is in, Fort Bragg should make it; and Dougherty Valley will get a spot. Clear Lake has to win their game with Upper Lake today to clinch a spot.

So we know the teams. The question is, what seed will they get? I think Ferndale is definitely the number one seed. But seeds two through eight are a mystery. How much weight will the seeding committee give an 8-2 or 7-3 St. Patrick-St. Vincent? Where will a 6-4 or 5-5 Justin Siena go? Both of those teams play in a league stocked with mostly Division III schools, so their strength of schedule is much stronger than other schools in Division IV. But does that mean they are truly better than a 9-1 Middletown or a 7-2 Salesian? It's hard to say. There is quite a bit of subjective reasoning that takes place during the seeding meeting. I know they try to make it as fair and as objective as they can, and they do have other concerns -- such as travel distance. But at the end of the day, they assign a spot to each team that most of us will gripe and grumble about. I suppose their is no winning if you are a member of the seeding committee.

I'll post scores from today's Division IV games as soon as I get them. If you get a score, post it as a comment here. Also, be sure to read comments. Sometimes people post more information about a game.

Final Score from the Night

Harker 35, CSD 6


So it was played!

Another final score from last night

Lower Lake 23, Willits 6



The CSD-Harker game may be played tonight. I'll keep checking for that score.

Friday Night Football...

The only scores I'm waiting on is Lower Lake at Willits, and CSD at Harker...Other than that, there were no surprises. I'll comment more on tonight's games tomorrow.

Another Final Score

Fort Bragg 28, Cloverdale 7

Another Final Score

St. Vincents 7, St. Helena 3

Another Final Score

Salesian 35, St. Elizabeth 0


In the Fourth Quarter, Middletown was beating Kelseyville 56-0. I'll post a final score later (my spotters for this game left early).

More Final Scores

Piedmont 55, John Swett 12

St. Pat-St. Vin 45, Moreau Catholic 6

Justin Siena 47, Terra Linda 6

Second Final Score

Dougherty Valley 24, American 17

Games in Progress III

Justin Siena 47, Terra Linda 6 (4th Qtr)

Middletown 49, Kelseyville 0 (3rd Qtr)

Salesian 35, St. Elizabeth 0 (3rd Qtr)

St. Pat-St. Vin 31, Moreau Catholic 6 (3rd Qtr)

Games in Progress II

Justin Siena 41, Terra Linda 6 (3rd Qtr)

Middletown 28, Kelseyville 0 (Half)

Salesian 21, St. Elizabeth 0 (Half)

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 24, Moreau Catholic 0 (Half)

Dougherty Valley 24, American 14 (3rd Qtr)

Games in Progress

Salesian 14, St. Elizabeth 0 (1st Qtr)

St. Patrick-St. Vincent 15, Moreau Catholic 0 (1st Qtr)

Piedmont 49, John Swett 6 (Half)

Dougherty Valley 21, American 14 (Half)

Justin Siena 14, Terra Linda 0 (2nd Qtr)

Tonight's Games

When you get back from a game, post the score here if we don't have it already. Just post as a comment to this post.

First Score of the night...

St. Mary's 26, Albany 0

Dougherty Valley

American (0-8) at Dougherty Valley (6-2) Friday night

This is Dougherty Valley's last regular season game. If they beat winless American, they will finish with a 7-2 record and a likely at-large bid for the Division IV playoffs if they choose to apply for it. American, while winless, is still a Division I team that is about equal to Mission San Jose, who lost 16-0 to Dougherty Valley last week. I think Dougherty Valley will win, but it may be a close game.
Prediction: Dougherty Valley wins 12-7.

NCL I Preview

Cloverdale (4-4) at Fort Bragg (6-2) Friday night

Fort Bragg looks to bounce back from last week's loss to Middletown and Cloverdale will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. I think this game might be closer than expected.
Prediction: Fort Bragg wins 26-20.


Kelseyville (4-3-1) at Middletown (7-1) Friday night

This is the first of two potential trap games this weekend. On paper, this should be an easy game for Middletown, but events rarely transpire as the formulas written on flattened wood pulp. If MIddletown is hungry and plays that way, they'll dominate from the start. But, if they are a little over-confident, a small window of opportunity will open for the Kelseyville Knights.
Prediction: Middletown wins 34-8.


Lower Lake (0-8) at Willits (0-8) Friday night

This would actually be a great game to see in person. Both teams are hungry for their first win and each realizes this is their best opportunity all season. I see a back and forth game until one pulls it out. In fact, my mind has gone back and forth on this. I changed my prediction.
Prediction: Lower Lake wins 34-26.


St. Vincent (7-1) at St. Helena (4-4) Friday night

Can St. Vincent recover from their first loss of the season? How good of a road team are they? They have only played two road games thus far, barely escaping 0-8 Willits with a win (14-2), and losing to Clear Lake 8-7. I see a storm brewing. For the second week in a row, I think St. Vincent will be upset.
Prediction: St. Helena wins 20-14.


Clear Lake (5-2-1) at Upper Lake (4-4) Saturday afternoon

This is the second trap game of the weekend. Clear Lake can't get caught feeling like they've already won the NCL I South. There's a lot of work yet to do -- especially in Upper Lake. The Cougars can definitely score points and they will make Clear Lake fans sweat 'til the end.
Prediction: Clear Lake wins 32-30.

Preview of this Week's Games (Except NCL)

Bay League


Salesian (5-2) at St. Elizabeth (5-3) Friday night

Salesian can claim the Bay League title with a win. If they lose, there will likely be a three-way tie for first place for the third year in a row.
Prediction: Salesian wins 35-21.


Emory (0-8) at Berean Christian (5-3) Saturday afternoon

Berean Christian is still suffering the post-blowout effects of last week's loss to Salesian. Their playoff hopes are on life support.
Prediction: Berean Christian wins 28-7.



Bay Shore


Albany (3-5) at St. Mary's (3-5) Friday night

St. Mary's can salvage a rough season with a respectable 5-5 record if they can win this game and next week's game at Kennedy. This looks like a tight game.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 32-27.


John Swett (2-6) at Piedmont (6-2) Friday night

I just don't think Swett has the tools to compete with a Piedmont team that is stocked with fast athletes and runs the unique A-11 offense.
Prediction: Piedmont wins 42-13.


Moreau Catholic 0-8) at St. Patrick-St. Vincent (6-2) Friday night

St. Vincent-St. Patrick was humbled in last week's 48-6 thrashing from undefeated Encinal. I pity the 0-8 Moreau Catholic Mariners for being served to the Bruins so soon after that game.
Prediction: St. Patrick-St. Vincent wins 47-0.



HDLN Little Five


Ferndale (8-0) at St. Bernhard's (5-3) Saturday afternoon

Ferndale is just waiting for the playoffs to start. In the meantime, they have a couple of tasks to attend to. One is this weekend.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 38-0.



MCAL

Terra Linda (1-7) at Justin Siena (4-4) Friday night

Justin Siena must win this game to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. I think they're in.
Prediction: Justin Siena wins 38-7.



I will preview NCL games tomorrow.

NCS Division IV Rankings This Week

1. Ferndale (8-0) – Beat South Fork 35-0.

2. Middletown (7-1) – Beat Fort Bragg 22-8.

3. St. Patrick-St. Vincent (6-2) – Lost to undefeated Division III Encinal 48-6.

4. Dougherty Valley (6-2) – Beat Division I Mission San Jose 16-0.

5. Fort Bragg (6-2) – Lost to Middletown 22-8.

6. Clear Lake (5-2-1) – Upset St. Vincent 8-7.

7. Justin Siena (4-4) – Idle, next up is Terra Linda.

8. Salesian (5-2) – Crushed Berean Christian 50-7.

The Playoff Picture

Well, the cream seems to be rising to the top. Middletown is the favorite to win the NCL I North and Clear Lake is in position to capture the NCL I South crown. Berean Christian was essentially blown out of the playoffs by Salesian, who now looks like the champ of the Bay League (as long as they can get by St. Elizabeth next weekend). Of course, we can't take anything for granted in the Bay League because the last two years we've seen a three-way tie for first (two of the teams involved were Kings Academy and Sacred Heart Prep -- both are in another section now).

St. Patrick-St. Vincent won't get an automatic bid after losing to new Bay Shore foe Enicinal 48-6, but they do play in a tough league with some Division III schools and if they can win out from here, they will likely get a top four seed.

The same goes for Justin Siena, who also plays in a tough league with both Division II and Division III schools. If they win out and finish with a 6-4 record, they too, will likely get a top four seed.

That leaves two more league champs out of the NCL I South and the Bay League, then two at-large births for the playoffs this year. Of course, one team I haven't mentioned yet is Ferndale. I think they are cruising toward the HDNL Little Five championship once again and will grab the number one seed in the playoffs.


So now we're left with two at large births. This is where the playoffs get a little crazy. Sometimes, teams that would have garnered a birth don't show up and the spot goes to a less deserving team. There are a few decisions made during the meeting that are more subjective that objective (such as comparing schedules and leagues). But, we'll discuss all of that once we know what the seeds are.

Right now, I think the two teams that are leading candidates for the two at-large births are Fort Bragg and Dougherty Valley. There might be a lot of talk about St. Helena, Cloverdale, and Kelseyville -- and one of them might squeak in. But don't forget that Berean Christian crushed Kelseyville 43-7; Kelseyville beat both St. Helena and Cloverdale; and Dougherty Valley beat Berean Christian. Now, I'm not in favor of getting too far away from a head-to-head match-up, but this is the kind of subjective discussion that will likely flare up were someone to challenge Dougherty Valley's spot. Also, I'm not even sure Dougherty Valley will even apply for a playoff spot. They are a new school and next year will likely be Division I or II. But right now, If I had to pick the four at-large teams, it would be St. Patrick-St. Vincent, Justin Siena, Fort Bragg, and Dougherty Valley.

Do any of you have another team in mind? Let me know!

Other Saturday Scores...

Kelseyville 33, Lower Lake 14

Upper Lake 35, Willits 8 (score correction)

St. Elizabeth 18, Harker 8

Middletown- Fort Bragg

In case you didn't read the last comment:

Highlights of the Ft. Bragg - Middletown game can be seen at

http://www.record-bee.com/home

Check the Media Center, Record-Bee Video Online

Saturday Scores

Ferndale 35, South Fork o

Salesian 50, Berean Christian 7 (Wow! Was I wrong!)

Another Score (and one I forgot to Preview)

Dougherty Valley 16, Mission San Jose 0

One more from Last Night

Upper Lake 36, Willits 6

Tonights Games

As it turns out, the Clear Lake St. Vincents game ended up being the biggest and closest of the night. I'm still expecting two more scores tonight -- Lower Lake at Kelseyville and Upper Lake at Willits. We'll probably get those scores tomorrow.

Happy Halloween everyone!

Big Game

Middletown 22, Fort Bragg 8

My First Upset Pick Came in....

Clear Lake 8, St. Vincent 7

Another Score

Cloverdale, 20, St. Helena 0

Second Game of the night...

St. Mary's 49, John Swett 0

First Game of the Night

Encinal 48, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 6

Mid-Game Part 2

Encinal 28, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 6 (3rd Qtr)

St. Mary's 42, John Swett 0 (half)

Mid-game updates

Encinal 14, St. Patrick-St. Vincent 6 (half)

St. Mary's 13, John Swett 0 (1st Qtr)

Games Tonight

Keep a close eye on this website tonight. I will update scores as I get them. If you come back from a game and you don't see your score posted yet, please post a comment to this post and I'll get it up ASAP.

Other Games this Weekend

St. Mary's (2-5) at John Swett (2-5) Friday night

It's been a long season for both teams. St. Mary's is a better team than their record would indicate and John Swett is a great 1st quarter team. I see a close game, perhaps a John Swett lead early, then the game will slip away from them. St. Mary's, if they win tonight, could finish a respectable 5-5.
Prediction: St. Mary's wins 35-14.



Harker (3-3) at St. Elizabeth (4-3)

Harker's first year in the NCS Division IV has been up and down. They look to finish near the middle of the Bay League this year.
Prediction: St. Elizabeth wins 35-7.



South Fork (5-3) at Ferndale (7-0) Saturday afternoon

South Fork lost to Ferndale at home 33-0 earlier this year. Saturday looks a little different.
Prediction: Ferndale wins 49-0.



Lower Lake (0-7) at Kelseyville (3-3-1) Friday night

Kelseyville struggles to hold onto the last rung of the playoff ladder. I think they can hang on a little longer. This will be their first win over a Lower Lake team coached by their former coach.
Prediction: Kelseyville wins 42-7.



Upper Lake (3-4) at Willits (0-7) Friday night

Upper Lake is one of those teams that is so close to being a playoff team you want to root for them. That will be easy to do tonight. Willits can't wait for next week's game against Lower Lake.
Prediction: Upper Lake wins 34-12.



St. Helena (4-3) at Cloverdale (3-4) Friday night

This will be a close game. Cloverdale is undefeated at home (of course, those two wins were against 0-7 Lower Lake and 0-7 Willits). Each has played common opponents about the same. I think I'll go with the home team.
Prediction: Cloverdale wins 21-20.



Justin Siena is idle this weekend.